Oscar-O-Meter™: The A.V. Club’s third annual guide to the fall prestige movies, part one

Provided you take our word for it and don’t go back into the archives, the A.V. Club’s Oscar-O-Meter feature has quickly become the definitive tool for Oscar prognostication. Through a rigorously scientific process, our writers have quantified each prestige movie based on a set of criteria: Is it a literary adaptation? Is it topical without being too controversial? Risky without actually being provocative? Does it feature a star who lost weight, gained weight, or made some sort of radical Method transformation? Does it have a middlebrow sense of grandeur? And most importantly, will Academy members feel good about themselves when voting for it?

Last year, the Academy awarded Best Picture to Slumdog Millionaire (Oscar-O-Meter rating: 9), a runaway hit at the Toronto International Film Festival. Due to the current recession, and a general slump in the international market, the atmosphere was considerably more muted at this year’s festival, but it still provided a clearer picture of how things might shake down during awards season. With that in mind, here’s the first half of our traditional two-part look at the high-toned entertainments of the season. 

Currently in theaters:

The Boys Are Back 
Premise: After his wife dies, hard-drinking, globetrotting sportswriter Clive Owen must juggle professional responsibilities, grief, and caring for his two sons.
Pedigree: Scott Hicks directed Geoffrey Rush to Oscar glory for his scenery-chewing turn as a mentally ill pianist in Shine, and Owen picked up an Oscar nom (that’s fancified industry talk for “nomination”) for Best Supporting Actor for 2004’s Closer.
Oscar-O-Meter rating: 4. If the film gains traction with critics and audiences, or becomes a sleeper hit, Owen has an outside shot at a Best Actor nomination.
Advance word: Middling and middlebrow, Back is liable to attract a modicum of attention for Owen’s fine lead performance, and nothing else. 

Bright Star
Premise: In the final years of his too-short life, John Keats fell in love with a neighbor named Fanny Brawne. Dubbing her his “bright star,” he wrote her passionate letters, but he died before they could marry—which would have been difficult anyway, given his financial straits. Jane Campion’s Bright Star revisits those final days, casting Ben Whishaw and Abbie Cornish as the doomed lovers.
Pedigree: The Piano proved Campion could make a period drama that sidestepped the stuffiness and distance most directors bring to such movies. And in spite of her unsuccessful attempt to adapt Henry James’ unyielding Portrait Of A Lady, returning to the past seems like a good idea after the mixed reviews that greeted contemporary Campion dramas like In The Cut and Holy Smoke. Here, she stays close to the facts of Keats and Brawne’s lives, but brings her usual visual flair and dramatic imagination.
Oscar-O-Meter rating: 9. Period costumes, unquenched passion, a tragic ending, great performances (including a supporting turn from a unusually burly Paul Schneider), and the touch of a real artist? Start engraving a few statuettes now.
Advance word: It’s already opened to strong reviews, including one from us. 

Capitalism: A Love Story
Premise: Documentarian Michael Moore argues that the American way of business works against the best interests of 99 percent of its citizens.
Pedigree: As one of the few documentary filmmakers who’s a household name, Moore has practically become a brand—albeit one that many viewers find unappealing or unfashionable.
Oscar-O-Meter rating: 2. He has a statue already, but in spite of the Academy’s notorious liberal bent, Moore has lost favor with many on the left, who see him as an off-putting loudmouth, not exactly making the best case for his side. Also… 
Advance word: …the movie isn’t so great. Moore rounds up some powerful anecdotes about greed run amok, but Capitalism is too long and too sketchy, with little daring, investigative journalism to recommend it.

The Informant!
Premise: Based on Kurt Eichenwald’s true-crime book, this story of price-fixing within the world of biochemical food additives—oh Hollywood, always going for the lowest common denominator—stars Matt Damon as an eccentric corporate whistle-blower with mixed motives. 
Pedigree: Though he’s lately been alternating between breezy Ocean’s movies and brainy digital projects like Bubble, Che, and The Girlfriend Experience, director Steven Soderbergh can turn out awards fodder when necessary, as evidenced by the one-two of Erin Brockovich and Traffic. Damon hasn’t courted Oscar’s attention since his Good Will Hunting breakthrough, but not for lack of trying or talent. 
Oscar-O-Meter rating: 4. By turning Eichenwald’s page-turner into a hilarious farce—complete with a Marvin Hamlisch score not far removed from the one that graced Bananas—Soderbergh and screenwriter Scott Z. Burns sacrificed all-important Oscar gravitas for the sake of an inspired, fast-moving entertainment. Damon might get some attention, though. 
Advance word: Soderbergh and Burns’ comic conceit is an original interpretation of the book, but not an outlandish one: Damon’s slippery, delusional would-be double agent imagines himself as the hero of a John Grisham or Michael Crichton novel, and the film taps into his twisted thinking via funny, wonderfully discursive voiceover narration. 

Releasing the week of October 2:

A Serious Man
Premise: A Jewish college professor in late-’60s Minnesota deals with a problematic family and a crisis of faith, in another one of the Coen brothers’ deadpan, absurdist era pastiches. 
Pedigree: The Coens have, almost improbably, become the arthouse equivalent of box-office gold; viewers appreciate their mix of dry wit and broad humor, as well as their knack for telling stories that rarely travel a predictable path. Joel and Ethan Coen have developed a recognizable style, yet none of their movies are exactly alike.
Oscar-O-Meter rating: 6. If this were any other year, A Serious Man would be one of those Coen brothers movies that gets no more than a Best Original Screenplay nomination. But now that the Best Picture race has been expanded from five nominees to 10, this odd, philosophical comedy could well find enough Academy fans to make the cut for the big prize. (Still, it’s unlikely to win.)
The view from TIFF: Critical opinion has been sharply mixed, with some admiring A Serious Man’s darkly comic look at spiritual despair, and others turned off by the Coens’ broad Jewish characters and the casually cruel treatment of them. There are very few “Eh, it’s okay” reviews out there. People either think it’s brilliant or repugnant. (By the way, the correct answer is “brilliant.”)

Whip It
Premise: Though groomed as a beauty queen by her domineering mother (Marcia Gay Harden), small-town waitress Ellen Page secretly gets involved in the underground roller-derby scene. As the scrappy, up-and-coming star of a losing team—flanked by Kristen Wiig, Eve, Zoe Bell, and first-time director Drew Barrymore—Page sets up a big confrontation with rival enforcer Juliette Lewis, and a bigger confrontation at home. 
Pedigree: The last Barrymore to win an Oscar was Lionel Barrymore back in 1931, so clearly the storied family is due. After virtually growing up onscreen for three decades, Drew Barrymore steps behind the camera for Whip It, and she has Hollywood’s goodwill firmly in her corner. She also has Page coming off her Oscar-nominated breakthrough role in Juno. 
Oscar-O-Meter rating: 2. Unfortunately, Barrymore may have to settle for widespread popular adulation, because disposable dramedies about marginal sporting pursuits tend not to win awards. 
The view from TIFF: Barrymore’s directorial debut is almost exactly the movie expected from her: a light, ingratiating, femme-centered ensemble piece with a positive message and a romantic-comedy element thrown in for good measure. But like a lot of actor-turned-directors, she gets the performances right, while her perfunctory direction is always a beat or two behind the action. 

Also in multiplexes: Co-written and directed with Matt Robinson, Ricky Gervais’ dark comedy The Invention Of Lying takes place in a world where everyone tells the truth, which gives Gervais plenty of latitude for his merciless self-deprecating humor, as well as a subversive message about the value of dishonesty. Meanwhile, the 3-D explosion brings Pixar’s Toy Story and Toy Story 2 back into theaters for a two-week run, and the buzz-magnet horror-comedy Zombieland pits odd couple Woody Harrelson and Jesse Eisenberg against a massive zombie force.

Releasing the week of October 9:

The Damned United
Premise: Based on David Peace’s book, this sports drama chronicles a difficult chapter in the otherwise sterling career of British soccer coach Brian Clough (Michael Sheen), when he took over the top Leeds United club in 1974 and was let go 44 tumultuous days later. 
Pedigree: There’s no more celebrated screenwriter and playwright working today than Peter Morgan, who specializes in bringing recent history to credible life onstage and in the movies. From Idi Amin (The Last King Of Scotland) to Tony Blair and Queen Elizabeth II (The Queen) to the legendary exchange between David Frost and Richard Nixon (Frost/Nixon), Morgan understands the lives of public figures, on and off the record. This also marks the fourth time he’s collaborated with lucky charm Michael Sheen.
Oscar-O-Meter rating: 2. In terms of social significance, the rivalry between Clough and departing Leeds coach Don Revie (Colm Meaney) ranks several notches below that of Morgan’s past subjects. The film may have trouble rousing English passions, and the U.S. cares little for soccer. 
The view from TIFF: Though engrossing most of the way through, The Damned United gets off to an especially rousing start, as Sheen’s Clough burns bridges before he even gets to town, arrogantly dismissing Revie’s achievements while casting his own players as thugs who don’t play the game the right way. It doesn’t amount to much in the end, but soccer historians and philosophers are given much to chew over. 

Also in multiplexes: A Christmas Story child star/professional Vince Vaughn buddy Peter Billingsley directs Couples Retreat, a raunchy, Vaughn-toplined ensemble comedy about a gang of pals who embark on a group trip—from hell! High School Musical’s Corbin Bleu motocrosses up a storm in the sure-to-be-riveting Free Style. Chris Rock explores the wacky world of African-American hair in the delightful comic documentary Good Hair.