Interview Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein

It’s baseball time again. With a seemingly endless season and somewhat obtuse rules, though, some people might find it hard to really care about or understand the action on the field. After all, not everyone knows the difference between VORP, WARP, and TAv.

Frankly, The A.V. Club doesn’t blame people who are more interested in drinking than baseball. To each their own, right? In this city, though, everyone simply has to have an opinion about America’s pastime—even if it’s just about some player’s beard, and that’s where The A.V. Club comes in. In preparation for opening day this Thursday, we talked to Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein about both the Cubs and Sox and gathered some choice baseball factoids and trivia that should make even the least sporty person sound somewhat informed.

The A.V. Club: Realistically, what are your expectations for the Cubs this year, other than that the city will be pissed at them come October?

Kevin Goldstein: I think that’s probably realistic. It’s not a very good team. They’re just in this horrible situation where they’re both not very good and not very interesting. It’s just the worst.

If you have a bad team but there are young players coming up, well, you’re not good, but just wait until this guy gets going, you know? With the Cubs, though, it’s a mediocre team. They’re not horrible, but it’s all just aging guys who are way overpaid. That’s a very common end result of what they did, though. You can’t blame the Cubs for “going for it.” They had a window, and they were competitive. They made the playoffs a couple of times, but it obviously didn’t work out for them, and the end result is that you have to go through a shitty downward cycle of overpaid older guys playing out their contracts. You can’t get rid of them, and it’s a shitty world to be in. It’s going to take some time and patience.

AVC: What do you think of the newish coach, Mike Quade?

KG: I’m really happy that the Cubs gave Quade an opportunity. He was just a filler when Pinella stepped down. The Cubs, as a team, are really PR focused. They want to keep people happy, and they could have found a bigger name, but the players did well under Quade and he earned a shot. I’m glad he’s getting one.

AVC: What about the Sox? How are they going to do this year?

KG: The Sox are maybe in a little bit better shape than the Cubs, but because they’re in the AL Central, they’re right in it. That’s the advantage of being in a crap division. The Sox and Twins were in a dogfight last year, and it’ll be the same thing this year, with the Tigers maybe being the third team.

With the Sox, it’s not going to take a ton to win the division—maybe just 80 games. If they get on one hot streak, or if one or two guys are having career years, that’ll put them over the top. On the other hand, if one guy gets hurt or sucks more than we think he’ll suck, that could tank them.

The Sox have weird team strengths and significant holes. You can say that about every team in the AL Central, though.

The latest computer projections have the Cubs winning 80 games and the Sox winning 83. That three game difference, because of their divisions, means the Sox have a far greater chance of winning and getting to the playoffs.

AVC: Do you like Ozzie Guillen?

KG: I love Ozzie Guillen. I even do an impression of him. He’s great, first of all, if you’re media. He’s just a soundbite machine. 27 of the 30 coaches will say the same thing every day—just, “We’re taking it one day at a time, good lord willing. We’re happy with our pitching,” whatever. With Ozzie, you never know what you’re going to get with him.

That’s real, too. There’s no act. I go to the winter meetings, and I’m walking down the hall in the hotel, and you’ll hear that voice and see him holding court. That’s all real.

He’s a pretty good manager, too. He’s getting good performances and using players properly. I’m a big Ozzie fan.

AVC: What about the NL Central? How’s that going to stack up?

KG: The Cardinals took a hit when they lost their best pitcher to Tommy John surgery, but they’re still the favorite. The Brewers are kind of a new team to watch, just because they got those two starting pitchers that they needed. The division’s going to come down to those two, with the Cubs in third.

AVC: What about the AL Central? We already know who’ll do well. What about the basement? Will it be the Royals again?

KG: The Royals are gong to be unbelievably horrid this year. They’re just really sad. But it’s okay! Royals fans are thrilled right now, actually, because they have the best minor league system in baseball and in recent memory—at least since I’ve been working. They’re going to suck this year to no end, but they’re the opposite of the Cubs, in the sense that they’re going to have all these young players who are going to show up, and they’ll be pretty good soon. They’re set up this year to take advantage of that in the future. They have no one under contract after this year. They have the young talent ready and they have places to put them. It’s going to be okay. The end of the misery that is the Royals is on the horizon.

AVC: You had Steve Albini as a guest on your podcast recently, and you guys talked about why you think baseball is the most punk sport. Can you explain that philosophy?

KG: There’s a few reasons, actually. I grew up in the Chicago punk scene in the ’80s, and tons of people from that scene were or are into baseball. I think it’s easily the most punk rock of the sports in a lot of ways.

It’s a weird game, first of all. Step back and think of the game. It’s obtuse. It’s strange and bizarre. I have plenty of friends from foreign countries, and they’ve been exposed to basketball, which they get. You put the ball in the hoop, and you move up and down the court. They can watch weekends full of baseball games, though, and still be confused. There are these strange abstractions that are part of baseball.

There’s also the individuality of the game. It’s incredibly unique in that sense compared to any other sport. In football, the running back is only as good as his blockers. A point guard can make the players around him better. In hockey, you have great passers and great scorers. But in baseball, if Aramis Ramirez is at the plate, no one can help him.

The third thing, which is related to the individuality, is that baseball lends itself to a kind of strange analysis, which helps a lot. It’s a distinctly strange and wonderful game. It’s the weirdest game in the world, I think. I’m baffled as to how it ended up so popular. Plus, it’s part of our culture. Basketball and football are more of the now, but baseball is just embedded in there. It means something to American culture more than any other sport.

AVC: If so many musicians are into baseball, why do baseball players have the absolute worst taste in music?

KG: They’re the worst. It’s even worse that so many of them have bands, and they’re all dreadful. There are a few players that have good taste in music, but they’re mostly minor league guys.

I think one of the problems is that so many of the players are from Florida or Texas, so they’re all country fans. Who knows what happens to people in Florida, really? You know what that’s like.

We play a lot of indie music on the podcast, though. For a while we just played music I liked, but then we thought maybe we should get the rights.We have about 3 to 5000 listeners, and they’re real good about wanting to know where they can get the records, and all that.

We’ve had all kinds of Chicago bands on, too.

AVC: You’re personally focused on prospects, right? What got you interested in players that aren’t in the majors?

KG: Prospects are the indie rock of baseball. You can say “I knew him when,” and be a total snob about it. Like if someone talks about A-Rod being awesome, you can say, “Oh, I saw him in Appleton, WI.” It’s like when a music snob tells you they saw the Pixies in ’87 with 60 people.

It’s about finding the next big thing, too. Then you can forget about them when they get big, which is what I do. In June, I’ll know more about the Reading Phillies than the Philadelphia Phillies. I saw Pujols play in Peoria before he became MVP and started doing Glenn Beck rallies.

AVC: What area minor league team should readers be following, then? Who should they make a trip to go see so they can brag 10 years from now?

KG: The Kane County Cougars in Geneva are the team to watch. They changed affiliations this year, so they’re a Royals team now, and I told you about the Royals prospects.

It’s also just a great setting, and they get a great crowd. They draw about half a million people a year, which is pretty good. It’s the way to go. If you’re in Chicago, it’s a decent drive west, but it’s a great time. It’s cheaper than going to Wrigley or the Cell, and where else could you see people dressed up in rubber animal suits dancing around? They have great names, too, like Clammy Sosa. He’s a giant rubber clam. Cow Ripken. Alex Frogriguez. Harry Canary. I mean, guys in rubber animal suits. I have no idea why you wouldn’t want to do that.