Place those bets

Ever since Greg Kot found out that Muse, Eminem, and Foo Fighters are confirmed to headline Lollapalooza, it’s been open season for lineup speculation here at The A.V. Club. Half the staff’s begging for Kanye, and the other half’s not so sure he’d play second fiddle to Eminem—or anyone, for that matter.

Thus, in the grand tradition of making bold suggestions without too, too much to back it up, The A.V. Club presents our odds on who’s going to be on that first lineup announcement when it drops this spring. It’s never too early, after all, to wildly speculate.

Death Cab For Cutie
Odds: 3:1
On the pro side, Ben Gibbard and crew are headlining Sasquatch and have a new record coming out later this year. They’re too big to play Pitchfork—especially given their last show at Millennium Park—but a little too small to play UIC or anything. They’d be a pretty safe headliner for Lollapalooza’s second stage, where Arcade Fire played last year, but something just doesn’t feel right. These guys have done the whole festival thing before. Maybe it’s better for them if they come through on their own.

The Decemberists
Odds: 3:2
These dudes were just in town, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be back seven months from now. In fact, that would be perfect “second time through town” tour routing. If they were to come through for Pitchfork, they’d probably have to headline, and that just doesn’t seem to be P-Fork’s steez this time around, especially considering it gave their latest record, The King Is Dead, a 7.2.

Bright Eyes
Odds: 4:1
With a new record due out later this month, and their March gig at the Riv already sold out, Bright Eyes would be in a pretty good spot to get a decent slot at Lolla. That being said, they’re not exactly a bombastic festival act, so maybe they’d be better off just doing their own thing.

Iron And Wine
Odds: 3:1
Speaking of quiet bands: these guys. Sam Beam and company are coming through town in March, but they’re also doing the whole festival circuit this year, too. With a touring band ranging anywhere from six to eight people and a history with Lolla, this seems like a solid bet for one of the “indier” big names.

Death From Above 1979
Odds: 5:1
Everyone made a big stink when the band was announced on Coachella’s lineup, but then it’s gone and confirmed a few more festival dates as well. These dudes might have broken up a few years ago, but they apparently have no aversion to cashing in. In fact, on the website, the band has a whole justification for it, saying that 2011 “may be the last year ever! So why not say YES? […] Why not say YES to playing the music we designed to be an undeniable source of power? Why not say YES to stirring up a writhing pit of sweaty humans?” The only variable here is whether the band will say YES to Pitchfork instead, though Lolla does have a lot more money to shove around.

Local Natives
Odds: 1:1
These SoCal natives did Pitchfork last year and they seemed primed to make the jump to Lolla for 2011. Plus, with a tour routing that just puts them in basically every festival around all summer, it seems like pretty good odds.

!!!
Odds: 6:1
The band has a new record and a pretty big sound, which makes it festival-centric. That being said, would it make more sense for !!! to play Pitchfork at 6 p.m. or Lolla at 2:30?

Jenny And Johnny
Odds: 1:1
Here’s the deal: A pretty girl who used to be in movies and is friends with Jake Gyllenhaal is in a band with her boyfriend. They have a new-ish record. They are going to play Lollapalooza. Period.

Best Coast
Odds: 3:1
Yet another jumper from last year’s Pitchfork. The band is getting just a little bigger, and while the ’Fork would surely be glad to have it back, it makes good marketing sense for Best Coast to move over to a bigger—and not so Snacks-familiar—market.

Sleigh Bells
Odds: 5:2
Sleigh Bells are still riding the “Rill Rill” train all the way to cashtown, and who can blame them? Other than if they weren’t asked, why wouldn’t they play Lolla?

Kanye West
Odds: 20:1
This one’s kind of a heartbreaker, but it’s probably a fact: Kanye is just not going to play Lollapalooza. Coachella, yes. ACL, probably. He’s done Lolla twice, in 2006 and 2008, but unless he’s headlining here—and he’s not, considering we already know the three main stage headliners (Foo Fighters are just not going to do the smaller stage)—then he’s not playing. Hope springs eternal, though. Maybe someone will cancel and Lolla will offer him a literal boatload of money. Until then, though, it’s wait until next year, or wait until he announces some United Center dates.

The Thermals
Odds: 6:1
Maybe. Just maybe. With their new album and everything, it seems more likely they’d play Pitchfork, especially after their ripping set in 2009 where they covered Green Day, Sonic Youth, Nirvana, and The Breeders.

R.E.M.
Odds: 20:1
Yes, they have a new record—Collapse Into Now—due out soon, but the band’s already come out and said that it’s just not interested in touring behind the record. That doesn’t rule out big festival appearances, but it’s kind of the same situation as Kanye would be in. Would Lolla really want to ask R.E.M. to headline a side stage while Muse tore up a main stage? And would R.E.M. want to be the band to swallow its pride to do that? R.E.M. doesn’t need the money that badly.

Cee Lo Green
Odds: 1:2
This dude screams festival rock. Sure, he could play his own show in town, but twice as many people would rather just see him at Lollapalooza. He’s confirmed for Coachella, and while “Fuck You” will be almost a year old come this August, odds are Mr. Green will still be ridin’ that train.

Ms. Lauryn Hill
Odds: 10:1
Well, with Lauryn Hill, you never really know. She was just in town, and has been touring around the country. She’s doing Coachella, though a million jokes have already been made about whether she’ll actually be on time for her slot there. Lolla does try to have one woman of soul on its lineup every year, but as to whether it’d roll the dice on the ex-Fugee is anyone’s guess.