Place your band bets: Which Lollapaloozers will be back this year

Hot off Lolla, it’s time for the onslaught of fall tour date announcements. The New Pornographers will slut up the Riviera Oct. 14. Cymbals Eat Guitars are joining up with The Thermals to rock Logan Square Auditorium Oct. 3. Mumford and Sons are bringing their Halloween hootenanny to the Vic Oct. 31. With more dates getting announced every day for the end of the year tour crush, A.V. Club Chicago places odds on who will reappear before the end of this year. (Feel free to use this as a reference at the hipster cred O.T.B.)

Arcade Fire
With Sunday night’s headlining slot under its belt and a smashing new record just out, Arcade Fire is supposed to be heading out on its biggest tour to date. There’s no word on a Chicago date thus far, but those crazy Canadians are notoriously fickle and last-minute. The band’s not into playing multi-night stands in cities, so wherever it would play would have to be fairly enormous. No one should be holding their breath, but there’s always the possibility of a late-season Millennium Park show, a random UIC Pavilion show, or even (gasp!) United Center.
Odds: 3 to 1. Don’t put the 401k on it.

Social Distortion
These Orange County punk lifers said Saturday that they’d be back in the fall, so this is a pretty safe bet. On their fall tour with openers Lucero and Frank Turner, Social D stops in the Twin Cities Oct. 19 and Detroit Oct. 21, so a Chicago show Oct. 20 isn’t that unthinkable.
Odds: 1 to 1. Promises made in front of thousands of fans generally signify a lock.

The Walkmen
Again, nothing’s confirmed, but these dudes are road dogs. With dates Oct. 10 in Detroit, Oct. 12 in Indianapolis and Oct. 14 in Madison, smart fanatics would block out that week on their Walkman-of-the-day calendar.
Odds: 2 to 1, though the real action’s on Oct. 11 vs. Oct. 13 in the side pot.

The Black Keys
In a post-Lebron world, these boys are the pride of Akron. That doesn’t mean they didn’t put on a total snoozer of a set on Saturday, but at least their stoned fans enjoyed it. Unfortunately, this might be the last time Chicago sees these dudes this year. They’re doing a Midwest jaunt in September, but that’s just weeks away. With nothing announced for the Chi so far, and West Coast dates to follow, fans shouldn’t expect to get their blues air guitar on until at least 2011. 
Odds: 20 to 1. Not likely, unless you’re as fiscally irresponsible as you are funkdafied.

Wavves
Guess what?!? They’re coming back, soon! Sept. 12 at Lincoln Hall, in the midst of a mega-U.S. tour. Start planning outfits now, chillwavers.
Odds: 1 to 1, duh. The over-under on headbands, though, is 35.

The National
With a newish record and potential year-end top 10 spots to be had, these droners are likely to be back this fall. Again, nothing’s been announced, but with open slots between St. Louis (Sept. 30) and Indianapolis (Oct. 2), it’s not insane to start growing a fan beard in preparation.
Odds: 3 to 1. Too often, and the city will get National-ed out.

Soundgarden
With its retrospective, Telephantasm, due out Sept. 28—weirdly enough, through Guitar Hero, though the group promises “vinyl, collector's editions, deluxe packages and more”—Soundgarden kicked off reuniongate 2010 in Chicago this past week with shows at the Vic and, of course, a Sunday headlining slot at Lollapalooza. With both big egos and big paychecks in question, a full tour seems a little unlikely. Time Out Chicago seems to think the group will play “at least one cross-country trek,” though our money would be on 10 dates, not 40. Still, the group claims it’s played Chicago more times than anywhere else, hometown of Seattle included, so why wouldn’t it come back once more? Unless Chris Cornell has some more Timbaland tracks to lay down.
Odds: 5 to 1. With tenuous egos and band dynamics, it’s never a safe bet—even when the money’s there.

Hot Chip
Man, that LCD Soundsystem/Hot Chip tour sounds pretty sweet. Too bad there’s not a Chicago date announced. Sure, there’s Denver Oct. 19, Milwaukee Oct. 22, and the Twin Cities Oct. 23, but nothing down here. This mega-package is hitting some less-travelled cities this time around, like Miami and Clinton, New York. While Milwaukee’s not really that far away, wouldn’t Chicago just be perfect? Please? Please?
Odds: 20 to 1, though not scheduling a Chicago date makes both LCD Soundsytem and Hot Chip big huge jerks.