Scott: Okay, let me get this straight: We're considering the final days of one of the richest, most magnetic characters in TV history, and you want to spend more time with Artie Bucco?! Listen, I can understand your frustration over the lack of time—and yes, occasionally the lack of care—given to the supporting players on The Sopranos this season. But I think in most cases, they've reached the end of their arcs; maybe not all as definitively as Uncle Junior, who's destined to live out his final days in a glazed stupor, but I'm not sure we have anything left to learn about the remaining characters. Carmela has already cast her lot with Tony, in spite of her occasional misgivings about what she clearly knows happened to Ade. Meadow has successfully removed herself from her father's sick gravitational pull, and will probably be just fine if she steers clear of Jersey for the next few weeks. Sil has been the good soldier for six seasons running, and Paulie, sick bastard that he is, remains so attached to Tony that he's become almost like a mood ring. Melfi has also long since reconciled her foolish role in treating Tony, and now exists as a feeble sounding board for his psychosis. The only characters who remain dynamic are A.J., whose failed relationship with Blanca is explained quite efficiently with a few looks and gestures (her body language during all their scenes together, especially at the Sopranos' dinner table, suggested that it was not meant to be), and Phil Leotardo, whose endless rancor remains the biggest threat to Tony's survival.
Over the course of six seasons, there's no question more attention and care has been paid to The Sopranos' supporting players, but they were ultimately defined in relation to Tony, satellites orbiting around one massive star. I think it's entirely appropriate that Chase and company have zeroed in on Tony for the final season—and when they haven't, as in Vito's Brokeback Mountain plotline in the first part of season six, the show has occasionally lost its bearing. There's no doubt that The Sopranos isn't as pleasurable to watch in its last season as it has been in the past, but it remains as honest and artful as ever in revealing Tony's prevailing instinct for self-preservation, which has now completely beaten back his weakening conscience. He isn't the guy who's susceptible to panic attacks anymore, because he's officially divorced from morality. When he shouts "I get it!" to the heavens at the end of "Kennedy And Heidi," he's a free man in the most awful possible sense.
So what's going to happen to him? I'm amused by how specific your prediction is. (And a little annoyed by your rancor. This is, we both agree, one of the greatest shows in TV history after all, right? A little respect, please.) I'll be more general. Here's how things could go down for Tony, in order from least likely to most likely:
Tony gets pinched. As if! The Feds have been circling Tony forever, and there's some suggestion that any one of his guys could turn on him, but among the many institutions Chase holds in contempt, law enforcement probably ranks as number one. After all, those hapless suits couldn't protect a single one of their witnesses from getting bumped off, much less assemble a complicated case against Tony and his crew. Probability: 5 percent.
Tony gets whacked. The sharks are definitely circling on this front. A confrontation with Phil has been brewing for some time, and that will have to be resolved violently before the season's end. But again, Tony's instincts for self-preservation are keen as ever, and I'm not convinced that anyone can touch him, especially after Junior's bullet failed to fell him. Probability: 20 percent.
Tony lives on. We agree on this one. I actually think that the whole series could have ended after "Kennedy And Heidi," though there'd probably be a riot at HBO's offices. But Tony, dead to the world as he might seem, won't be allowed to survive without being visited by one more tragedy, most likely involving his other son, A.J., whose volatility makes him and everyone around him vulnerable. In the end, I think Tony will be consigned to a hell of his own making, and that's an appropriate enough punishment for his sins. Probability: 75 percent.
As for The Shield, this week's episode shows that Shane has learned some survival skills of his own from Vic, and looks to stick around as a major threat to Vic's livelihood. What concerns me now is the fate of the Strike Team dynamic: Lem, the group's conscience, is dead, which strips some soul from the show in much the same way as Ade's death did in The Sopranos. And Shane's role in Lem's murder has cast him into exile, even though the bosses may be forcing them to work together again soon. That leaves Ronnie, whose stepped-up role hasn't necessarily made his workmanlike character more dynamic; Julien, who doesn't share the loose morals (or instincts) that make the Strike Team work; and the new guy, Hiatt (Alex O'Loughlin), who has kept his motivations perhaps a little too close to the vest. I trust the writers know what they're doing, heading into the last 15 episodes or so, but with each season, it's become more of a stretch for Vic to continue to slip the noose.
(Am I alone in wishing for a crossover episode involving these two shows? Sure, they look nothing alike, are set on opposite coasts in different milieus, and have completely different approaches to narrative, especially in their current seasons. But I'd love to see a confrontation between Vic and Tony—two stubborn men who get their dirty business done under gut-wrenching scrutiny and pressure—and I imagine they'd instantly hate each other. My money's on Vic in a fight, by the way.)
So what will happen to Vic? He faces the same three options in season seven that Tony's facing right now, but I'd reverse the probabilities. I think he's most likely to get pinched, now that The Barn has been taken over by CCH Pounder's Claudette, whose nose for bullshit is as sharp as her suspicions about anything that involves Vic. (Dutch, too, has a long-running vendetta against Vic that will surely be quenched by leading a successful investigation.) But death is also a possibility, given events like Shane's decision to involve himself with the Armenian mob. (Though that has more potential to backfire for Shane, I think.)
In any case, I'll miss these horrible, fascinating men when they're gone. With The Wire heading toward its final season as well, I'm worried that there's nothing that sophisticated waiting in the wings to become my new obsession. But both shows have unquestionably expanded the boundaries of what television can accomplish, so there's reason to be optimistic about what might follow in the wide-open space they'll leave behind.
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