The week of December 21
The Diving Bell And The Butterfly
Premise: Director/artist Julian Schnabel follows up Basquiat and Before Night Falls with yet another biopic, this one about Elle France editor Jean-Dominique Bauby, who blinked out a memoir when a stroke left his entire body—save for his left eye—debilitated.
Pedigree: Schnabel's knack for biopics about tortured artists finally paid off for him at Cannes this year, where Diving Bell scored him a Director prize and a special technical award for cinematographer Janusz Kaminski. Writer Ronald Harwood won an Oscar in 2001 for adapting The Pianist.
Oscar-O-Meter rating: 6. Schnabel's respect in the art world has thus far carried over to the mainstream, because his films, though about eccentric geniuses, aren't terribly eccentric themselves. Here, his painterly collage of dreams and memories proves similarly accessible.
The view from TIFF: Though widely celebrated at Cannes, Diving Bell received an unexpectedly muted reaction at Toronto, though that may be a consequence of having premièred at another festival first. At worst, it could fade like Alejandro Amenábar's similar The Sea Inside, but it's also much better liked.
Sweeney Todd
Premise: Johnny Depp plays a falsely accused ex-con who returns to London to take revenge on the aristocracy—and in particular, on the man responsible for his wife's death—by slitting the throats of the customers in his barber chair, and giving their corpses to Helena Bonham Carter to be ground into meat pies. And oh yes, it's a musical!
Pedigree: The original Tony-winning Stephen Sondheim/Hugh Wheeler stage production has been revived and performed in repertory ever since it debuted in 1979.
Oscar-O-Meter rating: 8. A year ago, just about any prestigious big-budget movie musical would've been considered a shoo-in for multiple nominations and awards. Then Dreamgirls happened. Other mitigating factors: director Tim Burton might not be able to resist embellishing the material with his cartoon-gothic sensibility, and as Sondheim musicals go, Sweeney Todd is aimed more at the brain than the heart. Still, even Dreamgirls had a presence at last year's Oscars, and it's hard to believe that this won't as well.
The advance word: Can Depp and Carter sing? Will the movie be too bloody? Who cares? Sondheim fans have been waiting for decades for a respectable film version of his work.
Also in multiplexes: All the mysteries left lingering at the end of the not-at-all-ridiculous "Nicolas Cage must steal the Declaration of Independence" adventure blockbuster National Treasure will be resolved in the achingly essential sequel, National Treasure: Book Of Secrets. Crack screenwriter turned director Richard LaGravenese solidifies his reputation as the best thing to happen to women's movies since George Cukor with P.S. I Love You, a tearjerker about a young widow (Hilary Swank) who's sure to have Oprah viewers reaching for the tissues. Super-producer Judd Apatow expands his kingdom of chuckles with Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story, a John C. Reilly vehicle that spoofs biopics like Walk The Line.
The week of December 28
Charlie Wilson's War
Premise: Tom Hanks plays a congressman who, in the early '80s, with the help of a Houston socialite (played by Julia Roberts) and a CIA grunt (Philip Seymour Hoffman), funneled money and arms to the Mujahideen in their fight against the Soviets in Afghanistan.
Pedigree: Between them, director Mike Nichols and screenwriter Aaron Sorkin (adapting a non-fiction book by George Crile) have received enough good reviews to wallpaper a mansion.
Oscar-O-Meter rating: 9. Sorkin can be an annoying writer, but the high-living world of Charlie Wilson and his cronies—and the irony of their success—seem to be right in his wheelhouse. And Nichols has been decidedly more engaged as a director over the past several years than he was in the '90s.
The advance word: This one has been kept on the down-low so far, which isn't necessarily bad. Every year, the studios hold one or two of their major contenders back, hoping to catch critics and Academy members looking for some fresh meat at the end of the warmed-over awards-season buffet.
Persepolis
Premise: Marjane Satrapi's graphic-novel memoirs become an animated feature, following her secular girlhood in Iran during the Islamic revolution of the late '70s, and her disillusionment with the Euro-punk crowd she falls in with when she travels abroad.
Pedigree: Satrapi's books have become surprise bestsellers around the world, and have won piles of comic-book and publishing awards.
Oscar-O-Meter rating: 8. Remember that no-doubt Best Animated Feature win for Ratatouille? Well, now there's doubt.
The view from TIFF: Even people who've never read Satrapi's comics have responded warmly to the way the movie pops with poster-ready imagery and snappy cartoon gags. Satrapi and animator Vincent Paronnaud maintain the episodic nature of her original story, but find a strong thread in the theme of how freedom begets responsibility, no matter where you live.
The Savages
Premise: When their irascible elderly father (Philip Bosco) loses his wife and his mental faculties, siblings Laura Linney and Philip Seymour Hoffman are left to figure out what to do with him.
Pedigree: Writer-director Tamara Jenkins debuted impressively with 1998's Slums Of Beverly Hills, but hasn't made a follow-up until now. Hoffman won Best Actor for the title role in Capote. Linney has been nominated twice (for Kinsey and You Can Count On Me), but hasn't won.
Oscar-O-Meter rating: 6. Though a common problem in the real world, grown children having to take care of their ailing parents is a rare premise for a movie, and rarer still for being treated with such unsparing gravity. (That's an Oscar minus, incidentally.) But Linney is overdue for some recognition, and her fine work here should earn her some.
The view from TIFF: As in Beverly Hills, Jenkins defines her characters well and has a knack for observational humor, but her tone is muted and sad, and she refuses to tack smiley-faces onto a tough, possibly lose-lose situation. Hopefully, Jenkins won't wait another nine years to make another movie.
There Will Be Blood!
Premise: Loosely based on Upton Sinclair's book Oil!, Paul Thomas Anderson's first effort in five years stars Daniel Day-Lewis as an misanthropic turn-of-the-century Texas oil prospector who makes his fortune alongside a charismatic preacher (Paul Dano) more skilled at winning over the locals.
Pedigree: Anderson has always been one of those directors whose films (Boogie Nights, Magnolia, Punch-Drunk Love) are more popular with critics' groups than mainstream bodies. Day-Lewis has won one Oscar (My Left Foot) and only deigns to appear in substantial projects.
Oscar-O-Meter rating: 6. Anderson isn't the sort to compromise for Academy fogies, but the film's literary and period trappings are more in line with what they usually go for. The reclusive Day-Lewis doesn't come out of semi-retirement often, but he always makes it count when he does. The film's gorgeous, Days Of Heaven-era Terrence Malick look won't hurt, either.
The advance word: Outside of a cryptic teaser trailer, the only footage anyone has seen of Anderson's film was a single completed reel, shown as part of a tribute to Day-Lewis at Telluride. Those in attendance were reportedly wowed by what they saw, but the film is still a big question mark.
Also in multiplexes: Know what the world needs? More aliens, more Predators, and more naked fanboy wish-fulfillment films like Aliens Vs. Predator: Requiem. But if instead it needed more Eragon and The Secret Of Roan Inish, it could probably meet both needs just about equally with the kids' fantasy The Water Horse: Legend Of The Deep. Unfortunately, the film isn't likely to meet anyone's Oscar-related needs. But it's always vaguely possible that we're wrong. We'll just have to wait and find out when the statuettes get handed out on Feb. 24, 2008.
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