NM: I wouldn't mind Randy and Paula being so vacuous and tin-eared if they'd just let Simon talk. I expect the audience to boo when Simon starts to be critical, but his fellow judges should at least let him finish his point, rather than acting shocked that he saw through the high-school-talent-show-level performance they all just watched. I'm especially annoyed at Ryan, who keeps urging Simon to "give constructive criticism," when in fact that's exactly what he does, most of the time—the exception being the time he falls back on his staple "karaoke" and "cabaret" jibes. Mostly he tells the contestants to look, act and sing like somebody who might interest potential record-buyers, and not like somebody barely good enough to be an understudy at a Branson stage spectacular.
You said you bailed on the audition rounds, but the general consensus was that Simon was being way too mean—an opinion that I pretty much shared. I wouldn't go so far as to call him homophobic or anti-fat, but he did generally act like the kind of guy who bullied nerds around in school. He's a front-runner, no doubt.
And yet, as you say, he's right most of the time. Which is why I find it interesting that so many of the contestants in the final 24 (though not so much in the top 12) were people that Simon nixed during the audition phase. Taylor is the keenest example. I don't think Taylor's popularity with the judges will persist all the way to the end. At a certain point, Simon's going to crack down on him, because Taylor's not really a marketable American Idol.
So who will win? If you'd asked me after the audition round, I'd have said that Paris was a lock, because she has the kind of naturally warm and original tone that I look forward to hearing. But she's pretty much tanked ever since, in my opinion. The tone's still there, but she's been over-singing and over-performing every song, all while dressed like a bank teller on casual Friday.
If you'd ask me to pick a winner after the round of 24, I'd say it was clearly Elliot, who again has a nice tone and the ability to sing all the notes of a song well, instead of mumbling to the chorus like so many Idol-wannabes. But Elliot ended the round of 24 with a lousy version of Bryan Adams' "Heaven," and he came out on Stevie Wonder night—a night practically designed for him—and gave a trembly, overdone performance of a really great song. So I'm worried about Elliot. Maybe he needs to dismiss that 40-piece rock band the show has stuffed in the wings, and just order up a grand piano.
As I see it, there are two clear front-runners, and they're both ladies, and neither of them is the über-bland Lisa. See if you can guess who I'm talking about.
ST: It's interesting to me how much the show is informed by Simon's pre-conceived ideas about what constitutes an American Idol. Taylor certainly doesn't fit with that conception—hence the "no" vote in the audition phase–and that smile that's been crossing his face after every Taylor performance is telling. He knows the guy is wrong for the part, but he has to concede that this train-wreck of a man keeps whistling down the rails. I expect him to pounce on Taylor the moment his weaknesses become readily apparent—and they will at some point or points along the different theme nights—but I think voters will need at least a couple of bad performances to cut Taylor loose.
Of course, Simon's words carry a lot of weight (though the occasions in which Paula shrugs are devastating for being so rare), and for that, Elliot should be thankful. Simon calling him the best male vocalist the show has ever had—better than Achin' for Akin, better than the Velvet Teddy Bear—should give him enough goodwill to carry him through more than a few flat performances, but I just don't see him showered in confetti at the end. He lacks presence and passion; if you can't rev it up for Bryan Adam's "Heaven," you don't have that much-ballyhooed "wow factor."
From the 12/12 phase, I've felt the women have been leagues ahead of the fellas (season after season, that seems to be the case) and so it follows that my front-runners are almost certainly yours as well: Katherine McPhee and Mandisa. I really don't see any weaknesses in Katherine: She's attractive, personable, and versatile, capable of adapting her voice to any genre of music while modulating it to many different registers, not just the big notes. She's also pacing herself nicely. She may not deliver the most talked about performance week after week, but what she does manage is always effortless, and I feel like she's going to break out a show-stopper once the chaff gets cut away and it's time to make a move.
Mandisa has been making moves week after week, and she may take this thing by the force of her voice alone, though I'm not yet convinced she can work her way through the quieter parts of the song. I wish the judges would emphasize even further the importance of making the low notes as compelling as the high ones: It's a little like a figure skater who can nail a triple axel, but can't do all those wussy little turns and spins that win you the gold. God knows that young singers are put through a rigorous processing phase throughout the competition and it's possible that Mandisa will benefit from a little coaching.
Seeing as how my NCAA tournament brackets are already shot to hell, my prognostications probably don't mean all that much, but here's how I see the rest of the competition breaking down. Going soon: Bucky, Ace, Kevin. Going later: Paris, Lisa, Kellie, Taylor. Going the distance: Mandisa, Katherine, Chris, Elliot.
What about you, Noel? Any final pre-diddly-ictions?
NM: Unless Lisa picks up the pace, I bet she'll go
quicker than you think. She's exactly the sort of pleasant, competent performer
that the judges love but that America shrugs off, leading to a shocked Randy
and Paula urging America to vote for their favorites, and Simon giving one of
his pissy "come to Jesus" speeches to the other contestants. ("You've got to raise
your game, people!") And I'm
already wishfully picturing Bucky's "glad to know ya" montage after he gets
booted out, this week or the next.
Kevin might last longer than you're hoping, because he probably does have a fanbase of people who think he's cute as the dickens. And as he showed at the audition round, he's capable of giving a genuinely commanding performance. The rest are a little harder to handicap. You're right that I've pegged Mandisa as a final-three-caliber frontrunner, and you're also right that she's slightly overrated at the moment. It's not just that she's more comfortable screeching than singing, but that she's not doing anything America hasn't heard before, thousands of times. She's a knockout performer, but a lack or originality might sink her over the long haul, unless she delivers a show-stopper every week.
I don't know what to make of Chris. He's got a great voice and an authentic "rocker" vibe, and he probably could be fronting a band and on the charts right now. But I don't know how he's going to find a way to sing all the themes, unless Red Hot Chili Peppers puts out a really eclectic covers album soon. And, to quote Simon, "if I'm being honest," the kind of music Chris prefers is boring and shitty. It's that Fuel/Staind/Evanescence/Nickelback "new rock," which is neither new nor, ultimately, rock—just power ballads covered by jet engine roar.
So
that leaves Katharine, a stunning beauty with confidence, presence, and an
Elliot-like ability to sing all the parts of a song well. She doesn't have the
most distinctive voice in the world, and her fashion choices seem to have been
pulled from a Motherwear catalog,
but the Katharine upside is too high not to imagine her singing a teary
rendition of some crummy pre-fab pop anthem at the end. If all goes as I hope,
she'll be giving Elliot a consolation hug before she does.
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