4th And 26 Packers vs. Steelers, and everything after

One more measly win, a little help from the Saints or Redskins, and the Packers are in the playoffs. Rub your eyes, shake out the cobwebs, and book it—it is on. So can we take a breather from wailing about Mason Crosby’s shittiness, and dissecting why the Packers can’t score TDs in the red-zone? Or which Walmart Jermichael Finley snagged his jersey from? All worthy discussion topics after Sunday’s grisly performance, but guess what? The Pack’s 9-4, and they swept the Bears for the first time in six inexcusable years. Even if Tim Gunn would dismiss the win with a limp-wristed wave, mark another one in the left-hand column, I say. That, and “Suck it, Chicago.” That also works.

All hubris aside, ever since we started winning five weeks ago, Pittsburgh’s been the one contest pundits circled as the likely spot for the Pack to take a digger. As much as it pains me, it makes sense at first glance. It’s the Steelers at Heinz Field! They’re the champs! They absolutely need this game! And so on. All fine arguments, though on closer inspection, they’re a little hoary if you ask me. So why don’t we shoot down the top five one by one? Then we’ll take a peek ahead at the final two games, as 4th And 26 will be on holiday hiatus until the playoffs.

1. The Steelers are better than the Pack.
It’s still November, right? Back then, Pitt was 6-2 with wins over the Chargers, Vikings, and Broncos, and a never-shoulda-happened loss against the Bears—impressive to be sure. We were coming off that atomic wedgie from the Bucs, and a breathtakingly uninspired 4-4 first half. Thing is, the NFL season is 16 games, not eight. When you lose to the Chiefs, Raiders, and Browns, you weren’t just unlucky; you have issues that extend beyond abysmal special teams. One more question: Right now, would you trade their roster straight up for ours?

2. The Steelers need this game more.
Not anymore. Until we have a playoff spot secured, we need to win a whole lot more than the Steelers, who are all but out of the post-season chase. We may have won five in a row, but overall, these have not been powerhouse performances. Another injury at corner, safety, or offensive tackle could torch our big-dick swagger and leave us in a bathtub staring at a Cialis-sponsored sunset. And until Crosby finds his head in his currently expansive ass, every close game the rest of the way will be a white-knuckler.

3. The Steelers have too much pride to lose this one.
Three words: Brady freaking Quinn. When you look at the quarterbacks who’ve knocked off the Steelers over the past month-plus, you won’t find Peyton Manning or Drew Brees anywhere—more like Bruce Gradkowski, Matt Cassell, and Quinn. Actually, if the Steelers had any pride, they’d have forfeited the rest of their games after losing to a quarterback who went 6-19 for 90 yards.

4. The Steelers are the Super Bowl champions. 
They sure are. That means they played 19 games last year, and 13 more this year where every single opponent was trying to smack them down and steal their hardware. That takes its toll. Plus, seven of their defensive starters are 30 or older. There’s only so far adrenaline can take you before dead legs catch up, and that time is now. For all of Ted Thompson’s alleged sins against humanity, having a crew of whippersnappers with tread on their tires isn’t such a bad thing come December—especially when two of them are named B.J. Raji and Clay Matthews.

5. The law of averages will catch up with the Pack.
Usually no matter how good you are, or how well you’re playing, at some point the football gods will smack you upside the head and say, “Sorry, today you lose.” Not this year. The ’09 season exists in a bubble with the Saints, Colts, Vikings, Broncos, and Chargers all having ridden winning streaks of six games or longer. Just as the Bucs, Rams, and Browns have endured seven-game bleeders. The Titans worked both ends of the continuum by losing six in a row, then winning five. Point is, fancy concepts like math and reason don’t apply right now.

But let’s say the Pack loses Sunday. (Fine. I suppose it’s possible.) With the carnage and tiebreaks in the NFC East, we’re getting in at 10-6. Do you want to bet that 10th win doesn’t come against the awful Seahawks in Lambeau? Me neither. Still, for the sake of hypotheticals, let’s go off-the-grid crazy and say we stumble again. The chances of the Cards having anything to play for in Week 17 are essentially nil. That means they’ll surely be resting their starters for a possible first round match-up with... yup, the Packers. Playing a team three times is knotty, but hell, we’ll be in the playoffs, we won’t be 6-10 again, and a win there could give us a crack at the other three-time rematch we’ve all wanted since early November. Yeah, with him.

Prediction: Mike Tomlin said the Steelers were going to “unleash hell” in December. If this is hell, screw the pearly gates and save me a front-row seat: Packers 17, Steelers 14. Now go start working on your playoff beard, have a good holidays, and we’ll see you all in a couple weeks to figure out how the Pack’s going to win its first-rounder.