The A.V. Club is counting down the days leading up to the 69th Primetime Emmy Awards, Sunday, September 17, with an examination of this year’s major categories. Each day, TV editor Erik Adams breaks down a category and gives us his picks for who should win, and who will win. Today we’re looking at the nominees for Outstanding Lead Actress In A Drama:

Elisabeth Moss is the clear frontrunner for her stellar turn as Offred in The Handmaid’s Tale, a potentially long overdue win given her tragically unawarded work on Mad Men. But overall this is a strong category, with Viola Davis already having taken home this award two years ago, and Keri Russell’s and Claire Foy’s award-winning work on their respective shows. But in the end, it’s Elisabeth Moss’ award to lose. For the rest of Erik’s analysis, check out the video above and stay tuned for more of The A.V. Club’s Emmy Round Up.