The 69th Primetime Emmy Awards are coming up this Sunday, September 17th and The A.V. Club is counting down the days leading up to the ceremony with an examination of this year’s major categories. Each day, TV Editor Erik Adams breaks down a category and gives us his picks for who should win, and who will win. First up, we’re looking at the nominees for Outstanding Lead Actor In A Drama. They are:

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Amongst a talented group of of nominees, Sterling K. Brown stands out as the frontrunner to win the award, given This Is Us’ domination of the network landscape and Brown’s awards momentum, coming off last year’s win for The People v. O. J. Simpson. Kevin Spacey and Liev Schreiber bring up the rear, giving predictable performances on there respective shows. For the rest of Erik’s analysis (which you can take to the bank, seeing as this video, recorded before last weekend’s Creative Arts Emmys, correctly forecasted a win for Alexis Bledel), check out the video above and stay tuned for more of The A.V. Club’s Emmy Round Up.