Should win: Widow’s Bay
Outstanding Lead Actor In A Drama Series
The drama category belongs to The Pitt. It’s quite disappointing. Hear me out. No one can deny this potent series relies on Noah Wyle’s capable shoulders. The ER alum certainly has industry members’ hearts. But he has already bagged a win for a (slightly better) performance in season one. So if Task’s Mark Ruffalo or, even more surprisingly, Paradise‘s Sterling K. Brown bag this one, we won’t be complaining. Each turned in a moving portrayal of a concerned dad who also has to solve a complex mystery. But if their chances are nearly impossible, then it’s likely worse for the remaining two reliable performers: Slow Horses‘ Gary Oldman and The Diplomat‘s Rufus Sewell. [SG]
Will win: Noah Wyle, The Pitt
Should win: Mark Ruffalo, Task
Outstanding Lead Actor In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie
This is a tough competition between two Netflix leads. Thanks to Widow’s Bay, Matthew Rhys is at the top of everyone’s mind. Perhaps it’ll help him beat Oscar Isaac, who is favored to win for his electric performance in Beef. Still, Rhys’ chilling turn as a psychopathic killer in The Beast In Me keeps him in the race—and might lead to a double win if he also secures the Outstanding Comedy Actor award—alongside another Netflix contender, Black Rabbit‘s Jason Bateman. There’s also Charlie Hunnam’s take on Ed Gein, but Monster’s second season didn’t have the same cultural impact as its first. The dark horse here is Bait‘s Riz Ahmed, who scored a surprising nod for capably toggling between heightened comedy and vulnerable drama. If only it could translate into his second win in the category (his first was for The Night Of 2017). [SG]
Will win: Oscar Isaac, Beef
Should win: Riz Ahmed, Bait
Outstanding Lead Actor In A Comedy Series
This is an interesting field, consisting of two Emmy winners who won for dramatic performances (Matthew Rhys for The Americans and Yahya Abdul-Mateen II for Watchmen) and three comic leading men who’ve been doing tremendous onscreen work for decades, but have yet to receive an acting Emmy for it (Steve Carell, Jason Segel, and Martin Short). The chatter throughout the campaign has been that Short is both overdue and a lock in this category, and as much as that leads me to ask “this is the season of Only Murders In The Building when everyone’s decided to go to bat for him?,” there’s no denying the amount of goodwill that’s recently built up around one of TV’s last true showmen. Is that, combined with a soul-searching episode submission and an Emmy-nominated documentary that burnished his reputation as one of the nicest guys in the world, enough to inch Short ahead of the Widow’s Bay juggernaut? Probably, but multi-nominee Rhys has that cachet with the voters, and he chose an episode that finds Mayor Loftis at his most hilarious, haunted, and hilariously haunted. Legacy most likely wins out here, and besides: We’ve only begun to see what Widow’s Bay has in store for Rhys. [EA]
Will win: Martin Short, Only Murders In The Building
Should win: Matthew Rhys, Widow’s Bay
Outstanding Lead Actress In A Drama Series
Here we have this year’s most exciting categories. If an impeccable Zendaya wins for the laughable third season of Euphoria, she’ll be the youngest and first Black actress to win this category thrice. However, the Emmys neglected Rhea Seehorn for her superb work on Better Call Saul (she wasn’t even nominated for one until the final season), so voters might rectify that by handing her a trophy for anchoring Vince Gilligan’s Pluribus with aplomb. There’s also Keri Russell, who bagged a win at the Critics’ Choice Awards, but was snubbed by the Academy for The Americans. Which one of them might defy the odds for their first win? The competition between this trio is a hot one, not leaving much room for The Testaments‘ Chase Infiniti or The Gilded Age‘s Carrie Coon to enter the chat. [SG]
Will win: Rhea Seehorn, Pluribus
Should win: Rhea Seehorn, Pluribus
Outstanding Lead Actress In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie
Should Carey Mulligan win this just for the way she pronounces Burberry in Beef‘s second season? The actor went toe-to-toe with Oscar Isaac, and also felt like season two’s standout (although Cailee Spaeny deserved a nomination, too). Once again, if Beef‘s goodwill carries on despite the three-year gap between seasons, Mulligan might pull off a win, just like Ali Wong did for season one. Sarah Pidgeon’s take on Carolyn Bessette was certainly a conversation-starter, though. Sarh Snook is great in All Her Fault, but I wish she had stronger material. Remarkably Bright Creatures did just win for Outstanding TV Movie, so watch out for Sally Field as a potential upset. [SG]
Will win: Carey Mulligan, Beef
Should win: Carey Mulligan, Beef
Outstanding Lead Actress In A Comedy Series
You almost want it to happen to just to see if it can happen: Jean Smart going five-for-five for Hacks, the Emmys’ first ever perfect run. It’d be an annoying sign of the awards’ cruise-control tendencies if she didn’t also deserve it, having formed an indomitable double act with Hannah Einbinder across the show’s run and brought Deborah Vance’s fight for credibility and respect to such a satisfying conclusion in the series finale—without also turning the headstrong, acid-tongued one percenter into some sort of saint. It’s tough luck for Lisa Kudrow, who took Valerie Cherish on a similarly transformative ride across 20 years and three seasons of The Comeback, and Ayo Edebiri, who gave The Bear’s fourth season its one episode really worth talking about with the Syd spotlight “Worms.” But have you seen the way Deborah treats her salt and pepper shakers? You think anybody’s going to pry an award statuette out of her hands? [EA]
Will win: Jean Smart, Hacks
Should win: Jean Smart, Hacks
Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Drama Series
Remember what we said about The Pitt being the favorite? Its cast has taken over the Supporting Actor categories. Patrick Ball might surpass his co-stars—previous Guest Actor winner Shawn Hatosy and Gerran Howell—because of Dr. Langdon’s overarching redemption arc in season two. Tom Pelphrey’s quietly fierce Task performance should be the underdog, but never say never to The Morning Show‘s two-time winner, Billy Crudup (the only actor to understand this show’s zaniness). Pluribus‘ Carlos-Manuel Vesga and Slow Horses‘ Jack Lowden—the latter of whom may or may not be our next James Bond—are great, but they just face tight competition. [SG]
Will win: Patrick Ball, The Pitt
Should win: Tom Pelphrey, Task
Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Comedy Series
I don’t think we’re in for a Jeff Hiller-style surprise this year: Harrison Ford has been the comedy supporting actor frontrunner since Shrinking’s third season started airing back in January. The end of Dr. Paul Rhoades’ therapeutic practice gave Ford the opportunity to do some of the most honest and intimate acting of his career, while also serving up one opportunity after another to access the rascally energy Ford’s surly public persona so expertly camouflages (like when Paul bursts into a scene singing the instrumental theme for one of the actor’s most famous movie characters). There wasn’t really a serious challenger here until Stephen Root sauntered into a town-hall staff meeting to give Widow’s Bay a Quint to call its own. But neither Root, nor the towering talents of Colman Domingo or Paul W. Downs squeezing into a fuchsia velour track suit from Sassafras is going to get in Ford’s way. [EA]
Will win: Harrison Ford, Shrinking
Should win: Stephen Root, Widow’s Bay
Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Drama Series
The Pitt has several notable actors, so it’s nice to see Fiona Dourif break through among them to secure a spot among the nominees (although Isa Briones was snubbed!). But the chances are high that among the four The Pitt nominees, last year’s winner, Katherine LaNasa, will be up on that stage again. She was excellent as head nurse Dana, but if I had to pick anyone from the show, it would be Sepideh Moafi. She walked into an immediately popular drama and staked her claim as one of its finest actors. Her win would also mean she’d be the first woman of Middle Eastern descent to win an Emmy. The Diplomat‘s Allison Janney and Paradise‘s Julianne Nicholson are past Emmy winners, but Pluribus‘ Karolina Wydra is the other true breakout alongside Moafi, so I would be happy if she snuck this one, too. [SG]
Will win: Katherine LaNasa, The Pitt
Should win: Sepideh Moafi, The Pitt
Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Comedy Series
I want to say it’s a savvy dodging of a foregone conclusion and not category fraud that landed Kate O’Flynn here rather than Outstanding Lead Actress In A Comedy Series. O’Flynn is, for all intents and purposes, Widow’s Bay’s lead actress; her episode submission, the incredible “Beach Reads,” cements her place alongside Matthew Rhys at the forefront of the show. But she’s so funny and weird and cannily revealing about her character in that episode that she ought to win whatever award she’s competing for. I can’t imagine her co-star Dale Dickey’s presence here is going to split the vote; she’s so good at playing what we’re not seeing in “Beach Reads,” but her true showcase is in the knotty family tree she traces later in the season. Megan Stalter finally, justifiably, entering the race in time for Hacks’ final season seems likelier to test loyalties and disrupt a repeat win for Hannah Einbinder—or, in the most extreme vote-splitting scenario, both Widow’s Bay and Hacks nominees cancel each other out and Janelle James gets the award she’s been up for every season of Abbott Elementary to date. [EA]
Will win: Kate O’Flynn, Widow’s Bay
Should win: Kate O’Flynn, Widow’s Bay
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