Our (yes, we know, way too early) Oscar 2023 predictions

Whether or not Matt Reeves’ interpretation of the Caped Crusader proves to be the skeleton key that unlocks more Oscar love for superheroes, there are multiple categories in which his skill as a filmmaker—and his choice of collaborators—seems likely to receive recognition. At three hours, Reeves’ screenplay is decidedly not a study in economy, but cinematographer Greig Fraser works masterfully with light to create a visual language and an atmosphere that resembles a super-powered version of Gordon Willis’ work on The Godfather. Production designer James Chinlund creates an oppressive, hermetically sealed Gotham City that feels like a playground for organizations that reward his kind of creativity. And even after following in the estimable footsteps of Danny Elfman and Hans Zimmer, Michael Giacchino creates a musical backdrop for the character’s conflicted heroism that stands apart and sets a new precedent for a Batman theme. Additionally, the prosthetics used to transform Colin Farrell are absolutely gobsmacking in their realism and subtlety, but it’s the actor’s performance in the role that really sells the technique. And if he doesn’t bring home a nomination, Paul Dano is at least as worthy as the maniac that rallied Gotham’s incels. [Todd Gilchrist]

With his second narrative feature, multitalented filmmaker Kogonada adapts Alexander Weinstein’s story “Saying Goodbye To Yang” into a beautiful meditation on family and loss that simultaneously touches on some important contemporary issues about technology, privacy, and human identity, an interpretation and examination eminently worthy of a screenplay Oscar nod. Meanwhile, Colin Farrell’s performance as a dad whose attempt to support Yang, a companion robot called a “technosapien,” leads him down a path of personal discovery may prove too understated for the Academy—which so frequently seems to reward the “most” acting instead of the best. But Farrell gives a remarkable dimensionality to the transformation that occurs when his character looks at the reflection cast by Yang’s snapshots of his family. [Todd Gilchrist]

Writer-director Domee Shi won an Oscar for her short film Bao, so she’s already set a precedent that may lead to her winning another for Pixar’s . The film’s screenplay is a marvel of specificity and yet relatability as it tells the tumultuous story of a young woman’s emotional volatility as she enters adolescence, and could easily attract nominations for costume and production design in addition to its seemingly inevitable nod for Best Animated Feature. Additionally, composer Ludwig Goransson straddles the line between music that honors Shi’s Asian-Canadian heritage and the broader saccharine sweetness of pre-fab pop that she and her friends are obsessed with. And finally, hot on the heels of their win for the title theme of No Time To Die, Billie Eilish and her brother Finneas contribute three songs that similarly manage to capture the irresistible energy of boy band hits and still somehow appeal to audiences who might have outgrown their pre-sexual charms. [Todd Gilchrist]

Given its February release date, HBO Max’s is a super longshot for any of the major awards categories. But director Steven Soderbergh’s straight-to-streaming COVID-era thriller might have a shot at Best Original Screenplay—if only for its deftly handled relevance. Screenwriter David Koepp, known for films like Stir Of Echoes and Premium Rush, delivers an inventive caper in this remarkably clever script centered on the dangers of big tech. Zoë Kravitz stars as Angela, a software administrator who overhears what she thinks is a violent crime on her company’s flagship artificial assistant “KIMI.” The result is a modern Rear Window as searingly funny as it is painfully spot-on. Again, it’s a bit outside of an outside chance—but any reason to plug a hidden gem, right? [Alison Foreman]

We don’t want to forget about the Academy’s documentary race, and by year’s end there will surely be contenders to rival recent winner . But docuseries, rather than one-off feature docs, are experiencing enough of a surge in popularity that the list of feature-length 2023 Oscar contenders could be a bit thin. Luckily, an obvious choice has already premiered and to rave reviews: Amy Poehler’s bowed at January’s Sundance Film Festival and is available to stream on Amazon Prime. Fresh off the heels of the Oscar-nominated Being The Ricardos, this warts-and-all depiction of Lucille Ball and Desi Arnaz’s marriage—onscreen in I Love Lucy and off—balances fascinating insights into TV history with genuine romance. Hollywood’s awards voters love Hollywood stories, so go ahead and add this to the shortlist. [Jack Smart]

The wait will for visionary Robert Eggers’ follow-up to The Witch and The Lighthouse, this time a sweeping epic based on the Viking legend of Amleth. If early buzz is any indication, The Northman has as much Oscar-friendly emphasis on historical invention (and reinvention) as it does on pulse-pounding action. Just look at the trailer: Yes, Alexander Skarsgård catches a spear in mid-air, but there’s also Academy favorite Nicole Kidman, rising star Anya Taylor-Joy, and none other than Björk, all giving witchy, scene-stealing vibes. Plus, production designer Craig Lathrop’s stunning longships and director of photography Jarin Blaschke’s Scandinavian vistas look to be automatic award contenders. [Jack Smart]

When was the awards success of Good Luck To You, Leo Grande guaranteed? You might point to rave reviews from its and upcoming distribution from Oscar-dominating Searchlight Pictures, and you might be right. But its greatness was actually predestined since the moment Emma Thompson signed on to play Nancy Stokes, a retired widow daring herself to overcome her uppercrust conservatism and hire a sex worker. Katy Brand’s script and Sophie Hyde’s direction are remarkable considering this story is mostly a two-hander, a seamless, ever-evolving push-pull between two very different characters. Thompson, with so many shrewd depictions of complicated women reckoning with their femininity behind her, was born to play this role. And as the titular sex worker, Daryl McCormack emblazons himself onto the screen and into audiences’ hearts—one of those breakout performances that will have directors clamoring to cast him in everything. [Jack Smart]