Primetime Emmys predictions: Who will win—and who should win

As we approach the 75th Primetime Emmy Awards, let's place our bets on the biggest races

By Saloni Gajjar | January 11, 2024 | 1:00pm

TV Features Jason Sudeikis

Primetime Emmys predictions: Who will win—and who should win

Clockwise from left: Quinta Brunson in Abbott Elementary (Photo: Giles Mingasson/ABC), Ali Wong in Beef (Photo: Andrew Cooper/Netflix), Matthew Macfadyen and Sarah Snook in Succession (Photo: HBO), Jason Sudeikis and Hannah Waddingham in Ted Lasso (Photo: Apple TV+) Graphic: Jimmy Hasse

The latest Primetime Emmy nominations, which cover work that aired from June 1, 2022, to May 31, 2023, offer an embarrassment of riches. The period boasts the final seasons of Succession, Barry, Reservation Dogs, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, and Ted Lasso; the successful sophomore returns of The White Lotus, Abbott Elementary, and Yellowjackets; and some pretty damn great debuts, like Jury Duty, House Of The Dragon, Beef, and, yes, even The Bear (season two aired in June and will be eligible next year. Phew. Check out the full list of nominees, as well as our reactions to them.

It’s safe to say the 75th Primetime Emmy Awards will be a fun faceoff, even if Emmy voters need to be watching more TV to make things truly exciting. The show will finally air on FOX on January 15, after the ceremony was pushed from September 2023 because of Hollywood’s strikes. To prepare for TV’s biggest night, The A.V. Club is breaking down 12 major categories to determine who will—and, more importantly, who should—win.

Outstanding Drama Series

Succession Season 4 | Official Trailer | Max

Nominees: Andor, Better Call Saul, The Crown, House Of The Dragon, The Last Of Us, Succession, The White Lotus, YellowjacketsWe are tempted to immediately declare the undisputed winner of Outstanding Drama Series. In its masterful final season, HBO’s drama , thoughts, and online memes, and will continue to do so for the unforeseeable future. It will most likely dominate the Emmys as well. But don’t discount . AMC’s brilliant drama ended after a six-season run, and despite being nominated for each season, BCS has never won. Could that change for its exceptional final installments because the Television Academy loves to honor overlooked shows for their last season? Maybe, but with Succession, it’ll be a hard fight. As for past winner The Crown, newcomers House Of The Dragon, Andor, and The Last Of Us, and returning hits like The White Lotus and Yellowjackets, it’s simply not their turn yet. However, TLOU and TWL might swoop in as serious underdogs in other drama categories.Will win: Succession Should win: Succession (Better Call Saul is a close second)

Outstanding Lead Actor In A Drama Series

Nominees: Jeff Bridges (The Old Man), Brian Cox (Succession), Kieran Culkin (Succession), Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul), Pedro Pascal (The Last Of Us), Jeremy Strong (Succession)With three Succession actors here, who else stands a chance? Well, just . The actor has long put in the work as Saul Goodman, successfully bringing the character over from Breaking Bad and crafting an epic performance in his spinoff. While Jeremy Strong and Kieran Culkin were stellar in Succession’s final run, the Emmys could finally favor Odenkirk after the actor suffered multiple losses. And gosh, he deserves it. Plus, out of Jeff Bridges and Pedro Pascal, only the latter could muster up a surprise.As for Succession, Brian Cox boldly submitted himself as Lead Actor despite only starring in two episodes of season four. The Logan Roy-esque move is admirable, but it also means he won’t win against his co-stars, including probably repeat winner Strong. However, . After and Critics Choice awards (and after ), in an ideal world, it looks like he’ll inch ahead of Strong to win this. Honestly, it’s a 50-50 between the two co-actors, and split voting is never fun, is it? Will win: Jeremy Strong, Succession Should win: Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul

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Outstanding Lead Actress In A Drama Series

Nominees: Sharon Horgan (Bad Sisters), Melanie Lynskey (Yellowjackets), Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale), Bella Ramsay (The Last Of Us), Keri Russell (The Diplomat), Sarah Snook (Succession)Succession is gearing up to sweep the drama categories. And this means the likelihood of Sarah Snook winning Outstanding Lead Actress is extremely high (not to mention the fact that she just nabbed a statuette at the Golden Globes). Snook, who portrayed new sides of a wily yet vulnerable Shiv Roy in season four, has been crushing it for the show’s duration, so we’re glad it’s finally her time. Her toughest competitor emerges in Bella Ramsay, who stars in a fellow HBO series, The Last Of Us, and made a remarkable impact as an angry teen trying to survive the apocalypse.While Yellowjackets’ Melanie Lynskey and The Handmaid’s Tale’s Elisabeth Moss had fierce performances, the sneaky surprise nominations were Keri Russell and Sharon Horgan. Could that lead to a sneaky win as well? Only if this was a non-Succession year.Will win: Sarah Snook, SuccessionShould win: Sarah Snook, Succession

Outstanding Writing For A Drama Series

Better Call Saul 6x13 “Walter White couldn’t have done it without me” Season 6 Episode 13 Saul Gone

Nominees: Beau Willimon (“One Way Out,” Andor); Sharon Horgan, Dave Finkel, Brett Baer (“The Prick,” Bad Sisters); Gordon Smith (“Point And Shoot,” Better Call Saul); Peter Gould (“Saul Gone,” Better Call Saul); Craig Mazin (“Long, Long Time,” The Last Of Us); Jesse Armstrong (“Connor’s Wedding,” Succession); Mike White (“Arrivederci,” The White Lotus) It’s lovely that Bad Sisters broke through with a nomination here. In the writing category, the Academy tends to pick shows that aren’t necessarily going to win otherwise. Plus, “” and “” are . However, in the year of Succession, the winner will be Jesse Armstrong’s masterpiece, “.” It’s undoubtedly well-deserved, but let’s not dismiss that Better Call Saul wrapped with a damn near perfect series finale, “,” which displayed Gould’s minute understanding of the show’s protagonist and how Jimmy/Saul can elevate anything with the power of his (a.k.a. Gould’s) words. The episode brings everything back, from Breaking Bad references to Kim Wexler. The script is an ode to it all and would be a worthy win. Will win: Jesse Armstrong (“Connor’s Wedding,” Succession) Should win: Peter Gould (“Saul Gone,” Better Call Saul)

Outstanding Comedy Series

Abbott Elementary Season 2 Trailer

Nominees: Abbott Elementary, Barry, The Bear, Jury Duty, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, Only Murders In The Building, Ted Lasso, Wednesday—and rightly so. The Bear’s debut season (as per eligible airdates, season two will come into play for next year’s nominations) and ’s final season four induced more stress than laughter. Wednesday feels like this year’s Emily In Paris. (.) Even Ted Lasso’s third season has hourlong episodes that veered toward the overdramatic. Jury Duty, this year’s sleeper hit, is of the semi-reality genre. Still, these are beloved TV shows, and a couple of them are well-deserving. If TL grabs it, the Apple TV+ series will win three consecutive times. But it looks like The Bear will put a stop to that run. That said, don’t discount ABC’s Abbott Elementary, an ensemble-driven, 22-minute sitcom that has steadily become network TV’s most refreshing offering in a long time. Plus, Mrs. Maisel’s final run revived some energy in the show, and it’s an established Emmys favorite. And OMITB remained pretty damn fun in season three. The Bear, however, is partially fresh in everyone’s minds for its pitch-perfect second season (and that Globes win). While the sophomore run deserves to take home the trophy next year, this year’s win should go to AE for its joyous run of episodes.Will win: The Bear Should win: Abbott Elementary

Outstanding Lead Actor In A Comedy Series

Nominees: Bill Hader (Barry), Jason Segel (Shrinking), Martin Short (Only Murders In The Building), Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso), Jeremy Allen White (The Bear)Look, neither of our strongest candidates necessarily made us laugh out loud—at least not as much as Jason Segel in Shrinking and Martin Short in Only Murders In The Building. (The latter outshone everyone else in that show’s third season.) Jason Sudeikis tried his best, but Ted Lasso’s narrative didn’t support his titular protagonist. Unless the voters want to award him thrice for some reason, this year’s battle is primarily between Bill Hader and Jeremy Allen White.White was spectacular in The Bear’s first season as Carmy navigates returning to Chicago and running the city’s most chaotic restaurant. If he wins, it’ll be great. But look at what Hader accomplished in Barry’s final season while also directing all the episodes. The show was markedly darker than before, with Hader bringing life to Barry’s intensity, trauma, and villainy. It’s not laugh-out-loud funny, as we said before, but Hader was unexpectedly comical, whether it was his walking stance, confrontations, or dialogue delivery. Honoring him for Barry would be a fun way for the show to wrap up.Will win: Jeremy Allen White, The BearShould win: Bill Hader, Barry

Outstanding Lead Actress In A Comedy Series

Nominees: Christina Applegate (Dead To Me), Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel), Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary), Natasha Lyonne (Poker Face), Jenna Ortega (Wednesday)Unless Emmy voters want to bid Mrs. Maisel goodbye by awarding Rachel Brosnahan again (she won in 2018) or honor Dead To Me’s , this year’s race will come down to Natasha Lyonne and Quinta Brunson. As massive as Wednesday’s viewership is, Jenna Ortega is still a rising star who’s jumping to movies. (And in the case of the Emmys, if a breakout actor deserves recognition here, it’s the young cast members of , who failed to earn a nomination.)Brunson is responsible for Abbott Elementary, making her acting work in ABC’s sitcom special. She’s perfectly silly, sweet, and easy to root for as optimistic teacher Janine Teagues. Lyonne could win for Poker Face, but voters might find her performance a little too similar to her past work, even if she’s great in it.Will win: Quinta Brunson, Abbott ElementaryShould win: Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary

Outstanding Writing For A Comedy Series

The Other Two Season 3 Trailer

Nominees: Bill Hader (“wow,” Barry); Christopher Storer (“System,” The Bear); Mekki Leeper (“Ineffective Assistance,” Jury Duty); John Hoffman, Matteo Borghese, Rob Turbovsky (“I Know Who Did It,” Only Murders In The Building); Chris Kelly, Sarah Schneider (“Cary & Brooke Go To An AIDS Play,” The Other Two); Brendan Hunt, Joe Kelly, Jason Sudeikis (“So Long, Farewell,” Ted Lasso)The Bear’s premiere half-hour is beautifully written chaos that captures the urgency of the story about to unfold. The FX comedy is currently experiencing a high, which will lead to a win for Christopher Storer here (unless Ted Lasso beats it). The Bear is sure to win a bunch for season two next year, so we’re hoping for The Other Two to win this writing award. Series co-creators Sarah Schneider and Chris Kelly leave no stone unturned when it comes to inserting throwaway jokes, running gags, and pop-culture references in an episode. It’s never better than season three’s “Cary & Brooke Go To An AIDS Play,” which doles out one banger after another as the Dubek siblings experience dating highs and lows. Plus, while the other nominated shows are far more popular, The Other Two is the TV show that made us laugh the hardest this year.Will win: Christopher Storer (“System,” The Bear)Should win: Chris Kelly, Sarah Schneider (“Cary & Brooke Go To An AIDS Play,” The Other Two)

Outstanding Limited Series

BEEF | Official Trailer | Netflix

Nominees: Beef, Dahmer, Daisy Jones & The Six, Fleishman Is In Trouble, Obi-Wan Kenobi is one of 2023’s most dazzling new TV entrants. Everything about the limited series—the performances, the twists, the thrills, the messaging, and its nuanced take on Asian-American identities—was remarkable. It overshadowed hits like Fleishman Is In Trouble, an otherwise strong but underrated contender. So Beef will likely walk away with this win, even if Netflix’s other big hit, Dahmer-Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story, has the potential to turn the tables. As for Daisy Jones & The Six, and have a soft spot for the adaptation, but it’s not going to emerge triumphant over the three choices above. Meanwhile, over Apple TV+’s Black Bird or FX’s The Patient would be a travesty—and that’s all I’ll say about it.Will win: Beef Should win: Beef

Outstanding Lead Actor In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie

Nominees: Taron Egerton (Black Bird), Kumail Nanjiani (Welcome To Chippendales), Evan Peters (Dahmer), Daniel Radcliffe (Weird: The Al Yankovic Story), Michael Shannon (George & Tammy), Steven Yeun (Beef)Sorry to Taron Egerton and Daniel Radcliffe, both of whom pulled off tremendous performances in Black Bird and Weird: The Al Yankovic Story, respectively. Ditto to Kumail Nanjiani, who was lovely in Welcome To Chippendales—but it’s not the kind of barrier-breaking turn to win an Emmy. So we’re left with three strong potentials.If voters go for prestige TV, then Michael Shannon wins for Showtime’s George & Tammy, a star-studded but quickly forgotten drama. Then there’s Dahmer, an egregious series with Evan Peters playing the famed serial killer. It got the viewership numbers, which might be enough to sway voters. Finally, Steven Yeun lies in the sweet spot because Beef is critically and commercially acclaimed. His performance is nothing short of magical and evocative, and now has a Globe win behind him, too. Yet, Peters has the edge because of the mass appeal of Dahmer. Will win: Evan Peters, Dahmer Should win: Steven Yeun, Beef

Outstanding Lead Actress In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie

Nominees: Lizzy Caplan (Fleishman Is In Trouble), Jessica Chastain (George & Tammy), Dominique Fishback (Swarm), Kathryn Hahn (Tiny Beautiful Things), Riley Keough (Daisy Jones & The Six), Ali Wong (Beef)Dominique Fishback rose to the challenge of Swarm, Lizzy Caplan was tremendous in Fleishman Is In Trouble, so it’s good to see her recognized, Riley Keough was the exact right person to play Daisy Jones, and Kathyrn Hahn was expectedly tender in Tiny Beautiful Things. But this race comes down to the remaining nominees. If the voters go all-in for prestige TV, they’ll back an Oscar winner like for Showtime’s George & Tammy (even if they haven’t seen it). Meanwhile, Ali Wong left everyone in awe with her Beef performance, breaking out of her standup comedy shell to deliver a stunner. She deserves this one. Will win: Jessica Chastain, George & Tammy Should win: Ali Wong, Beef