Finally, John Oliver pours Last Week Tonight's resources into prediction markets segment

Beyond the ethics of gambling on life-or-death events, the biggest prediction markets look like hotbeds of insider trading.

Finally, John Oliver pours Last Week Tonight's resources into prediction markets segment

Over the past few months and years, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have begun spawning practically everywhere: Award shows, sporting events, news channels. These companies have touted themselves as resources but, as John Oliver discusses in last night’s Last Week Tonight, they are dubiously legal and full of people trying to profit from instability. “These companies’ insistence that they are not gambling platforms is actually one of the two more irritating claims that they tend to make. The other is that they’re actually incredibly important to society because they can help us more accurately predict the future,” says Oliver. But it seems more like they’re helping people profit from instability, and, as Oliver quips, “The only groups that society has decided are allowed to profit from instability are military contractors, members of the Trump family, and the Mormon wives.”

At least two of those three categories seem well represented here already. Donald Trump, Jr. serves as an advisor to the two major companies, and what he offers them—outside of a direct line to the White House—is murky at best. But it also looks like there’s other people with intimate knowledge of the government profiting from the markets. “It gets genuinely chilling when you realize that people seem to be using insider info to bet on life or death events,” says Oliver, citing one person who made $400,000 after the capture of  Venezuelan president Nicholas Maduro and two Israelis who were charged with using classified military information to place bets.

“At the bar minimum, the CFTC should be doing more,” Oliver concludes the segment. “And while it says it’s writing new rules, I wouldn’t expect much, especially for as long as this fucking guy [Michael Selig] is in charge. As I said earlier, there’s a bunch of cases making their way through the courts right now, but it’s not clear how they’ll resolve and it’s probably going to be in front of the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, Congress is considering a number of proposals tackling aspects of this issue, although given the President of the United States has a kid currently advising both major companies, I wouldn’t hold your breath.” Perhaps we can check the odds on Polymarket—in the meantime, you can watch Oliver’s segment below. 

 
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