Best Play: Liberation vs. The Balusters
Many have expected Liberation to run away with this award, and it still might. Bess Wohl’s play set amid 1970s feminist consciousness-raising sessions won the Pulitzer Prize from Drama the day before the Tony nominations were announced, starting a second wave (pun intended) of support for what was already a buzzy play. Wohl’s script makes 50-year-old politics feel urgent, recognizing that not only is the personal political, but that the personal realities can often get in the way of political ideals. This is a subject matter that The Balusters also touches on: Set in an upscale community in an unnamed U.S. city, David Lindsay-Abaire’s script follows a community board’s attempt to add a stop sign to an intersection that descends into identitarian, often petty squabbling. The Balusters is bitingly funny, extremely 2020s, and is actually still running, meaning voters still have the opportunity to see it. It has positive word-of-mouth in New York, too, and could wind up with a last-minute surge of support.
Best Actor In A Play: John Lithgow in Giant vs. Nathan Lane in Death Of A Salesman
John Lithgow seems like frontrunner here, having earned the Drama Desk Award for his portrayal of Giant‘s Roald Dahl in New York, and the Olivier Award for it in London. But it also seems like a mistake to discount just how much Broadway freaking loves Nathan Lane. His Willy Loman anchors a production that seems likely to take home the awards for Best Revival of a Play, Best Director for Joe Mantello, and Best Featured Actress in a Play for Laurie Metcalf, not to mention scenic and lighting design—it’s not hard to imagine that this momentum could extend to Lane. Potentially complicating this, though, is the Scott Rudin factor: The disgraced producer is staging his own comeback with this Death Of A Salesman production and not everyone is thrilled. When Lane accepted the Drama Desk for Best Revival of a Play on behalf of the production, he was subjected to scattered boos when he thanked Rudin. (To which he responded: “Oh, his family is here.”) Then again, Lithgow has also been subject to backlash recently irrespective of his performance in Giant, so it’s hard to say whether this will actually deter any voters.
Supporting Actor In A Play: Alden Ehrenreich in Becky Shaw vs. Ruben Santiago-Hudson in Joe Turner’s Come And Gone
This feels perhaps the widest-open of the acting categories, but if I were a gambling man, I would put my money on Alden Ehrenreich. Becky Shaw is arguably the buzziest show on Broadway right now. It only received two nominations and seems unlikely to snatch Best Revival Of A Play from Death Of A Salesman. Ehrenreich’s incredible performance is the flashiest of the show, and awarding him would keep a well-received show from leaving the ceremony empty-handed, and he already won the Drama Desk for the performance, his Broadway debut. By the same token, it’s his Broadway debut, and Tony voters could choose to award someone more seasoned. In that case, I could see Ruben Santiago-Hudson taking home the trophy. He tied with Ehrenreich at the Drama Desks, and it’s been 30 years since his win for Seven Guitars. As Bynum Walker in Joe Turner’s Come And Gone, Santiago-Hudson shoulders the balance of the play’s humor and pathos with aplomb, embodying what works best about the show.
Featured Actress In A Musical: Nichelle Lewis in Ragtime vs. Shoshana Bean in The Lost Boys
Once again, we have a matchup between the Broadway veteran and the relative newcomer. Shoshana Bean has been doing this for a while—she was Idina Menzel’s understudy in Wicked—and is on her third Tony nomination in five seasons. She makes the most of a pretty conventional mom role and elevates some of the blander musical work in The Lost Boys. She’s in the show quite a lot, and the award would be an acknowledgement of her time on Broadway. (Fun fact: Caissie Levy, another Broadway vet who’s poised to win Best Actress in a Musical this year, was slated to play Bean’s part before Ragtime was extended.) Nichelle Lewis, meanwhile, gives a true supporting performance as Sarah in Ragtime, providing much of the emotional anchor to the musical of the season. This is only Lewis’ second Broadway show and she’ll certainly have other chances to win, but it’s hard to imagine this Ragtime without her.
Featured Actor In A Musical: André De Shields in Cats: The Jellicle Ball vs. Ben Levi Ross in Ragtime
Cats: The Jellicle Ball has been received enthusiastically by both audiences and critics, but, being such an ensemble piece, was mostly overlooked when it came time to award specific performances. The exception here is André De Shields, another veteran who won a Tony a few years back for his performance in Hadestown. De Shields is a Broadway institution and while I’ve seen some criticism that his Old Deuteronomy feels less like a character and more like André De Shields, it’s hard to imagine too many people being upset about that. If The Jellicle Ball loses both Best Revival and Best Direction to Ragtime, it might pick up a win here. At the same time, the Ragtime hype could help propel Ben Levi Ross to his first Tony after wins at the Outer Critics Circle and the Drama Desk.
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