What shows will win, and which should win, at the 2020 Emmys

Nominees: , , ,Prediction: The Simpsons may be the incumbent, but if ever there was the possibility of the TV Academy recognizing the brilliance of BoJack Horseman, it’s at this year’s ceremony. True, this is the TV Academy’s last chance to recognize the animated series that raised the bar for animated series . But there’s something about the improvised nature of this year’s proceedings that seems ripe for a shake-up—in this category at least. This is the second nomination for BoJack Horseman, and the submission, “,” is even more wrenching than “,” while still brimming with humor. But even if voters don’t necessarily agree on that point, there’s no denying the bravery and pathos of this final season, which went all out in many respects while eliding a neat ending.Preference: The Simpsons will have stories for years—this award belongs to the BoJack Horseman team.

Nominees: Homeland, “Prisoners Of War,” directed by Lesli Linka Glatter; Ozark, “Fire Pink,” directed by Alik Sakharov; Ozark, “Su Casa Es Mi Casa,” directed by Ben Semanoff; Succession, “Hunting,” directed by Andrij Parekh; Succession, “This Is Not For Tears,” directed by Mark Mylod; The Crown, “Aberfan,” directed by Benjamin Caron; The Crown, “Cri de Coeur,” directed by Jessica Hobbs; The Morning Show, “The Interview,” directed by Mimi Leder Prediction: There’s some cause for vote-splitting concern, as Succession, Ozark, and The Crown all have two nominations a piece here, but these three series just represent the strongest competition. “Aberfan” and “Cri de Coeur” are both handsomely directed, but despite landing roughly the same number of nominations as in years past, the third season of The Crown doesn’t have the same momentum as its competitors. Ozark’s profile has only risen since it premiered in 2017, so “Fire Pink” director Alik Sakharov or “Su Casa Es Mi Casa” helmer Ben Semanoff could very well win. The Morning Show is a wild card; the season-one finale, “The Interview,” was a smart pick for a submission, as it’s more potent and focused than most of the preceding episodes. But Succession’s “Hunting” is expertly controlled chaos; director Andrij Parekh captures every bit of humiliation that Cousin Greg (Nicholas Braun) and Tom (Matthew Macfadyen) endure, as well as the rebellion stirring in Kendall (Jeremy Strong).Preference: Succession’s “Hunting” is a triumph of direction (and writing), the camera almost shaking its head in disbelief at the latest string of indignities doled out by Logan Roy. Its stiffest competition comes from “This Is Not For Tears,” the Succession season-two finale.

Nominees: Modern Family, “Finale Part 2,” directed by Gail Mancuso; Ramy, “Miakhalifa.mov,” directed by Ramy Youssef; Schitt’s Creek, “Happy Ending,” directed by Andrew Cividino, directed by Daniel Levy; The Great, “The Great (Pilot),” directed by Matt Shakman; The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, “It’s Comedy Or Cabbage,” directed by Amy Sherman-Palladino; The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, “Marvelous Radio,” directed by Daniel Palladino; Will & Grace, “We Love Lucy,” directed by James BurrowsPrediction: This is basically a two-horse race between the tearjerking (but uproarious) Schitt’s Creek finale and The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel’s “Comedy Or Cabbage,” an exhilarating episode that dangled the possibility of a Midge-Lenny relationship. We’ve been afforded so few moments of unmitigated happiness that the Television Academy could very well make good on its 15 nominations by awarding Schitt’s Creek outstanding directing for the heartwarming “Happy Ending.” But Maisel’s stylish travelogue is comforting in its own way, whisking viewers away to Miami along with Midge. Preference: The pilot for The Great is a dizzying romp that ends with a subtle declaration of war from Russian empress Catherine (Elle Fanning). But given that this star-studded Hulu series scored no acting nominations, this conversation’s a non-starter.

Nominees: Little Fires Everywhere, “Find A Way,” directed by Lynn Shelton; Normal People, “Episode 5,” directed by Lenny Abrahamson; Unorthodox, directed by Maria Schrader; Watchmen, “It’s Summer And We’re Running Out Of Ice,” directed by Nicole Kassell; Watchmen, “Little Fear Of Lightning,” directed by Steph Green; Watchmen, “This Extraordinary Being,” directed by Stephen Williams Prediction: The late Lynn Shelton’s wonderful work on the Little Fires Everywhere finale, “Find A Way,” was rightly recognized with a nomination in this category, but the award is ultimately going to go to Watchmen for “It’s Summer And We’re Running Out Of Ice” or “This Extraordinary Being.” Despite Nicole Kassell’s fantastic work on the pilot, which had the scope and cast of a feature film, few TV episodes have generated as much discussion as “This Extraordinary Being.” Veteran director Stephen Williams showed great panache and sensitivity in handling the Hooded Justice reveal, while also demonstrating inherited trauma through layers of color. Of course, Lenny Abrahamson and Normal People could provide an upset here; this Hulu limited series has also picked up steam since its release, and Abrahamson already has awards luster courtesy of an Oscar.Preference: “This Extraordinary Being” connected America’s racist past and present as seamlessly as it did multiple genres, and Williams’ direction is as key to its success as Lindelof and Jefferson’s script.

Nominees: The Good Place,” Whenever You’re Ready,” written by Michael Schur; , “The Great (Pilot),” written by Tony McNamara; Schitt’s Creek, “Happy Ending,” written by Daniel Levy; Schitt’s Creek, “The Presidential Suite,” written by David West Read; What We Do In The Shadows, “Collaboration,” written by Sam Johnson and Chris Marcil; What We Do In The Shadows, “Ghosts,” written by Paul Simms; What We Do In The Shadows, “On The Run,” written by Stefani RobinsonPrediction: Why stop with outstanding directing for Schitt’s Creek’s “Happy Ending?” Dan Levy not only brought an end to the Roses’ riches-to-rags-to-wigs storyline, but he also managed to revive that old TV standby: a wedding. Levy will see some competition from “The Presidential Suite” scribe David West Read, but let’s not count out that other tearjerking series finale—The Good Place’s “Whenever You’re Ready.” What We Do In The Shadows’ multiple nominations in this category once again set up a vote-splitting conundrum, but its strong showing here can’t be for naught either, right?Preference: Although it didn’t represent the culmination of years of storytelling, Stefani Robinson’s script for What We Do In The Shadows’ “On The Run” produced one of the flat-out funniest episodes of television.

Nominees: Better Call Saul, “Bad Choice Road,” written by Thomas Schnauz; Better Call Saul, “Bagman,” written by Gordon Smith; The Crown, “Aberfan” written Peter Morgan; Ozark, “All In,” written by Chris Mundy; Ozark, “Boss Fight,” by written by John Shiban; Ozark, “Fire Pink,” written by Miki Johnson; Succession, “This Is Not For Tears,” written by Jesse ArmstrongPrediction: With the ascension of Kendall and the possible comeuppance for the Roy family patriarch, “This Is Not For Tears” is one of the boldest, most memorable contenders in this field—not to mention that Jesse Armstrong is the incumbent, having won the prize in 2019 for “Nobody Is Ever Missing.” A cliffhanger ending never hurts to keep your episode top of mind for Academy voters, either. But with Ozark and Better Call Saul having divvied up most of the rest of the spots, things aren’t quite tied up for Succession just yet.Preference: I have no quibble with the frontrunner, even if I think Better Call Saul’s “Bagman” is equally as epic and tense.