Who will (and should) win at the 2023 Golden Globes

The Golden Globes are back on the air this year, and they may give us some ideas about how the Oscar race is shaping up

PublishedJanuary 9, 2023

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Top left: Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin; top right: Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All At Once; bottom left: Cate Blanchett in Tár; bottom right: Austin Butler in Elvis — Top left: Colin Farrell in *The Banshees of Inisherin*; top right: Michelle Yeoh in *Everything Everywhere All At Once*; bottom left: Cate Blanchett in *Tár*; bottom right: Austin Butler in *Elvis*

After taking a year off to polish its tarnished image, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association is back on TV this year to stage the 80th Annual Golden Globe Awards in front of a live audience. Whether the winners will truly be the best Hollywood has to offer or merely the beneficiaries of the most effective studio lobbying campaigns (as was often the case in the past), remains to be seen. Responding to criticisms of questionable ethics and lack of diversity, the organization has hired new leadership, added 21 journalists to its membership, barred voters from accepting gifts from studios, and opened its voting pool to more than 100 additional nonmember voters, including more diverse voices. That was good enough for NBC, which will broadcast the awards on its flagship network as well as its Peacock streaming platform on Tuesday, January 10.

Controversies aside, there’s no denying the impact the Golden Globes have on other races as the first big award show of the season. The Academy begins its Oscars nomination period on Jan. 12, just two days after the Golden Globes ceremony. With that in mind, we’re making our predictions for who will win, and who we think should win, in the Globes’ major film categories as well as the top TV races. If any of these end up being wrong, we’re going to blame it on the HFPA, which clearly still has some work to do to address its broken voting system...

2 / 18

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture

Marvel Studios’ Black Panther: Wakanda Forever | Official Trailer

The nominees:

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Carey Mulligan, She Said

Who will win: Angela Bassett

Although Angela Bassett has yet to win an Oscar, she did receive a Golden Globe Award for Best Actress for her powerhouse performance as Tina Turner in the 1993 biopic What’s Love Got To Do With It. So the HFPA clearly likes her. We think they’ll honor her again, as the Globes don’t seem to have any hangups about giving out big awards to genre films, as the Oscars tend to.

Who should win: Angela Bassett

She’s only gotten better with time, and she brought a level of intensity and pathos to Queen Ramonda in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever that elevated the film whenever she was on screen. Her heart-wrenching performance was one of the best parts of the film, and she should be recognized for it.

3 / 18

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN | “Sit Somewhere Else” Clip | Searchlight Pictures

The nominees:

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees Of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees Of Inisherin
Brad Pitt, Babylon
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

Who will win: Brendan Gleeson

The Banshees of Inisherin was the most popular film among this year’s Golden Globe hopefuls, with nominations in eight categories. We imagine it will walk away with a good number of wins, including Best Supporting Actor for Brendan Gleeson as the curmudgeonly Colm, who goes to extreme lengths to end a lifelong friendship in a small Irish village. Keoghan was also great in the film, but we think Gleeson’s more prominent role will carry him over the finish line.

Who should win: Ke Huy Quan

In one of the best cinematic comebacks in recent memory, Ke Huy Quan returned to the screen after nearly three decades and it felt like he never left. In one of the year’s best films, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Quan played several different versions of the same character across multiple universes, each one totally distinct and thoroughly believable.

4 / 18

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama

TÁR - “You Cannot Start Without Me” Official Clip - Now In Select Theaters, Everywhere October 28

The nominees:

Cate Blanchett, Tár
Olivia Colman, Empire Of Light
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Who will win: Cate Blanchett

This is going to be one of the toughest categories at the Oscars this year, but the Golden Globes offers two opportunities for a Best Actress win due to the way it splits up its categories. People have been talking about Cate Blanchett’s performance as problematic maestro Lydia Tár since the film started screening for critics months ago, and that buzz has catapulted her to front-runner status and will likely translate to a Golden Globe win at this year’s ceremony.

Who should win: Cate Blanchett

From a cynical point of view, you could argue that Tár was engineered as a vehicle to deliver some hardware to its star come awards season, but that doesn’t change the fact that Blanchett gives an incredible performance in the film. Lydia is a complicated character, full of nuance and contradictions—a predator who’s also a victim of her own success, outwardly resolute while her life falls apart. Blanchett allows us to access Lydia’s complex inner world through her unflinching performance, and for that she deserves the recognition she’s bound to get.

5 / 18

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama

Baz Luhrmann’s ELVIS | “Hayride” Clip

The nominees:

Austin Butler, Elvis
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Hugh Jackman, The Son
Bill Nighy, Living
Jeremy Pope, The Inspection

Who will win: Austin Butler

There are few more solid bets in Hollywood than the star of a musical biopic being in contention in an acting category come awards season. It may not always mean they take home a statue, but there’s no denying that awards voters love to see actors fully immerse themselves in the role of a famous musician. It helps if they have a voice to match the looks, and that little extra star quality that’s hard to define. Austin Butler has the goods, and his performance as The King in Elvis proves it. Or maybe he just looked really good next to Tom Hanks’ Colonel Tom Parker, about whom the less said, the better.

Who should win: Brendan Fraser

It’s hard not to root for Brendan Fraser, but he’s already announced that he’s skipping the Golden Globes ceremony this year, and as much as we respect his choice (stemming from his accusations of sexual assault by a former HPFA president), we worry that it may count against him when it comes to choosing a winner. We still think his touching and critically acclaimed performance in The Whale is worth recognizing, though. The film may have its problems, but Fraser’s performance is not one of them.

6 / 18

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy

Everything Everywhere All At Once | Love Bomb | Official Clip HD | A24

The Nominees:

Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes To Paris
Margot Robbie, Babylon
Anya Taylor-Joy, The Menu
Emma Thompson, Good Luck To You, Leo Grande
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once

Who will win: Michelle Yeoh

We’re still talking about Michelle Yeoh’s astonishing performance in Everything Everywhere All At Once for a reason. Amidst a cacophony of visual and narrative chaos, and throughout a staggering variety of multiverses, Yeoh capably held the film together as its grounded center. The sci-fi premise may have been way out there, but the emotional stakes felt real, and she gave those moments the resonance needed to achieve something very special.

Who should win: Michelle Yeoh

While Cate Blanchett may be taking up a lot of oxygen in the early Oscars race, the Globes have an opportunity to recognize Yeoh for her extraordinary work in the parallel category of best performance in a musical or comedy. It’s a different kind of performance, requiring a whole separate skill set, and we’re glad there’s room for both to be awarded for their outstanding achievements this past year.

7 / 18

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy

THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN | “I Just Don’t Like Ya No More” Clip | Searchlight Pictures

The nominees:

Diego Calva, Babylon
Daniel Craig, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Adam Driver, White Noise
Colin Farrell, The Banshees Of Inisherin
Ralph Fiennes, The Menu

Who will win: Colin Farrell

If you’ve seen The Banshees Of Inisherin, Colin Farrell’s performance as a simple Irish herdsman struggling to understand why his best friend suddenly breaks up with him isn’t one you’ll soon forget. We don’t think HFPA voters will forget it either. Farrell brings a tenderness and a boyish quality to Padraic that’s equal parts hilarious and heartbreaking. If he’d played it any other way, or if anyone else had played him, the film would not have worked as well as it does.

Who should win: Daniel Craig

If we’re talking about the most enjoyable performance of the year, the standout on this list has to be Daniel Craig as famed detective Benoit Blanc in Glass Onion. If we were talking purely in terms of memes and popularity, well, Craig would still win. His initial outing as Blanc in Knives Out was enough to bring us back for another twisty murder mystery, and Craig did not disappoint. The impeccable outfits, the affectations, the accent, the sharp wit, and even sharper intellect—it all adds up to an instantly iconic character we’d be willing to follow anywhere.

8 / 18

Best Director, Motion Picture

The Fabelmans | Official Trailer [HD]

The nominees:

James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees Of Inisherin
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Who will win: Steven Spielberg

The HFPA passed over Steven Spielberg last year when he was nominated for West Side Story (they honored Jane Campion for The Power Of The Dog, and she went on to win an Oscar), but we don’t think they’ll miss their chance to give him a statue this year. Spielberg has been nominated 13 times for a Golden Globe for Best Director, and won it twice. His semi-autobiographical film The Fabelmans has all the qualities HFPA voters love in a film—a feel-good narrative about the power of the movies, loosely based on a true story.

Who should win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert

Before we get to our pick for who should win, a word on who should have been nominated. Despite some outstanding directing by women this past year, including Sarah Polley for Women Talking and Gina Prince-Bythewood for The Woman King, this list of nominees is strictly made up of men. Having said that, we can’t deny that the Daniels’ spectacular work on Everything Everywhere All At Once merits this award above all the others in contention this year.

9 / 18

Best Motion Picture, Drama

TÁR - Official Trailer [HD] - In Select Theaters October 7

The nominees:

Avatar: The Way Of Water
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick

Who will win: Tár

Only two of these films were included in the directing category, but we don’t expect either Elvis or The Fabelmans to take home a Best Picture award this year. Instead, we’re predicting it will go to Todd Field’s Tár. In a year when maximalism reigned at the cinema Tár was the rare minimalist film that burrowed deep into your skull and stayed there. It was an immersive experience of light and sound that pulled off the neat trick of tearing down pretensions while simultaneously being a little bit pretentious itself. Golden Globes voters can feel good about themselves for giving this one a win.

Who should win: Tár

As much as we all enjoyed Top Gun: Maverick (kudos to the HFPA for sneaking that one in there) we can’t say it was the best drama of the year. Same goes for the other entries in this category. Tár stands out on this list for all the reasons stated above.

10 / 18

Best Picture, Musical or Comedy

THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN | Official Trailer | Searchlight Pictures

The nominees:

Babylon
The Banshees Of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Triangle of Sadness

Who will win: The Banshees Of Inisherin

We’re playing it safe and predicting that the film with the most Golden Globe nominations will win Best Picture. The HFPA really seems to love The Banshees Of Inisherin, and we figure their affection will take the form of an award for overall achievement in this category.

Who should win: Everything Everywhere All At Once

Let’s be real, no other film can compare to Everything Everywhere All At Once in terms of critical and popular success. It came out of nowhere, defying expectations and explanations by ignoring conventional norms. We’d love to see this imaginative and well-rounded film get the recognition it so richly deserves at the Golden Globes, paving the way for more accolades come Oscar time.

11 / 18

Best Television Series, Drama

Official Season 6 Trailer | Better Call Saul

The nominees:

Better Call Saul
The Crown
House Of The Dragon
Ozark
Severance

Who will win: Better Call Saul

We don’t expect the HFPA voters to pass up their last chance to honor Better Call Saul after the Breaking Bad prequel ended its illustrious six-year run with a perfect final season. The show has never won a Golden Globe and it’s long overdue.

Who should win: Better Call Saul

As much as we’d like to see Apple TV+’s outstanding breakout drama Severance win in its first year, it will be back for another season and have at least one more chance to win (possibly more).

12 / 18

Best Television Series, Musical or Comedy

Hacks Season 2 | Official Teaser | HBO Max

The nominees:

Abbott Elementary
The Bear
Hacks
Only Murders in the Building
Wednesday

Who will win: Hacks

The Golden Globes gave Hacks this award last year and we don’t anticipate they’ll go a different way this year, despite some strong contenders. This season cleverly blew up the relationship between Jean Smart’s Deborah and Hannah Einbinder’s Ava, and then put the pieces back together as the two of them broke in new material on the road.

Who should win: The Bear

It’s hard for a show to break into awards season in its first year, but if anyone could (and should), it’s The Bear. There’s nothing on TV like it right now. It was one of our favorites of last year, and deserves a whole award just for its single-shot episode alone.

13 / 18

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series, Drama

The nominees:

Jeff Bridges, The Old Man
Kevin Costner, Yellowstone
Diego Luna, Andor
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Adam Scott, Severance

Who will win: Bob Odenkirk

Already a sentimental favorite, Bob Odenkirk completed his final season of Better Call Saul in the midst of recovering from a heart attack. That will likely win him a few sympathy votes, but even without that added context he deserves a win for pushing boundaries to make something just as good as—or maybe even better than—the celebrated show that launched it.

Who should win: Bob Odenkirk

What better way to bid a final farewell to Saul Goodman, a.k.a. Jimmy McGill, then to reward Odenkirk for his outstanding work as he completed the final transformation into the colorful character we first met in Breaking Bad way back in 2009?

14 / 18

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series, Drama

Zendaya as Rue having Good Time at party (HBO Euphoria)

The nominees:

Emma D’Arcy, House Of The Dragon
Laura Linney, Ozark
Imelda Staunton, The Crown
Hilary Swank, Alaska Daily
Zendaya, Euphoria

Who will win: Zendaya

The HPFA often goes with the buzziest pick in the acting categories, and Zendaya has already won the Emmy twice, so the image of her standing on the podium, award in hand, is already in the minds of voters. She did some great work in the past season in the role of Rue on HBO’s dark teen drama, so she’s not a bad choice. At least, among these nominees.

Who should win: Rhea Seehorn

Not only do we think Rhea Seehorn should have been nominated in this category, we think she deserves to win it. For some inexplicable reason, Seehorn has been consistently shut out of the nominations for her performance as Kim Wexler in Better Call Saul. In a series with a lot of amazing seasons, this final one was Seehorn’s best yet, and it’s a shame she’ll never get recognized for her outstanding work.

15 / 18

Best Actress in a TV Series, Musical or Comedy

Hacks | Deborah & Ava’s Trip Down Comedy Lane | HBO Max

The nominees:

Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant
Selena Gomez, Only Murders In The Building
Jenna Ortega, Wednesday
Jean Smart, Hacks

Who will win: Jean Smart

Jean Smart has already won two Emmy Awards and a Golden Globe for her role as Deborah Vance, a standup comedian trying to reinvigorate her career. She was just as good in the second season as she was in the first, so we don’t foresee a shakeup in the category this year.

Who should win: Jean Smart

Smart is one of the most consistent, and consistently funny, actresses working today. There are some notable rising talents here, but none of them are at her level at this point in their careers. Smart legitimately earned this, and we think she deserves it.

16 / 18

Best Actor in a TV Series, Musical or Comedy

Barry Season 3 | Official Trailer | HBO

The nominees:

Donald Glover, Atlanta
Bill Hader, Barry
Steve Martin, Only Murders In The Building
Martin Short, Only Murders In The Building
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear

Who will win: Bill Hader

Without Ted Lasso in this category, it’s Bill Hader’s Globe to lose. Although Barry isn’t an outwardly comedic role, Hader’s comic background makes him an easy choice for the win here. Glover is always good on Atlanta, but he was absent from a lot of the season, and while we were blown away by Jeremy Allen White’s first season of The Bear, we think his time will come in a future year.

Who should win: Bill Hader

Hader’s dark character study of a skilled assassin who just wants to be an actor and live an average life is anything but average. He perfectly balances Barry’s inner rage with a tender heart and a broken-beyond-repair moral compass that consistently gets him into one outrageous and deadly situation after another. Hader makes it hard to look away from Barry, even when you might want to.

17 / 18

Best Limited Series, Anthology Series or a Motion Picture made for Television

The White Lotus Season 2 | Official Trailer | HBO

The nominees:

Black Bird
Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
The Dropout
Pam & Tommy
The White Lotus

Who will win: The White Lotus

Call it recency bias, but we think HPFA voters may be swayed by the fact that the second standalone season of The White Lotus was airing as they were choosing the best anthology series of the year. They also might be aware of the fact that it won the Emmy for this category the last time around.

Who should win: The White Lotus

Mike White pulled off an improbable feat this year by making the second season of The White Lotus completely different from the first, yet equally great in its own way. It’s fitting that he should be taking home gold again this year for making the most of the show’s new Italian location and giving us more characters we loved to despise.

18 / 18