There are many indications that the U.S. economy might be in a recession: Mass layoffs, high inflation, Toy Story 5, to name a few. The problem is that experts likely won’t know that the economy is in a recession until we’re already in one. It’s a wonderful system. But of all the indicators we’ve seen lately (calling something a recession indicator has become an enjoyable, if fatalistic meme), one theory from author Erin Baldwin of TikTok might be the most convincing—mostly because she brought receipts. Baldwin argues that People‘s Sexiest Man Alive is a recession indicator when they actually pick the right guy, and her math checks out.
“People magazine is very good at picking the right man at the wrong time, but occasionally they do get it right,” Baldwin says in the video. “Every time they’ve gotten it right, there’s been a recession.”
The first time this happened was in 1991, when People selected Patrick Swayze as the Sexiest Man Alive. “Good choice,” Baldwin says. Two years later, People begins a period of “weird choices,” starting with the selection of Richard Gere and Cindy Crawford as the Sexiest Couple Alive. But weird turns out to be good, economically speaking, because the American economy stabilized after Hurricane Swayze. But an overzealous People can’t help but make the right choice in 2000, choosing Brad Pitt, fresh off of Fight Club and Snatch, and Pierce Brosnan in 2001, just before he left Bond behind. Both are excellent choices, but unfortunately, they are the Sexiest Men Alive during the 2000 to 2001 recession. And who might you ask was the Sexiest Man Alive in 2009, at the start of the Great Recession? Hugh Jackman.
Of course, the theory is subjective and relies on you agreeing with People‘s choice. But it doesn’t bode well for the country that People made the right call and named Jonathan Bailey Sexiest Man Alive last week. “We know, we nailed,” People writes. Oh, how we wish you hadn’t.
