Who will win (and who should win) at the 2022 Grammys

From Lil Nas X to Olivia Rodrigo, The A.V. Club picks winners for the major races at music's biggest night

PublishedMarch 31, 2022

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Top, from left: Amelia Meath of Sylvan Esso (Photo: Stephen J. Cohen/Getty Images); Lil Nas X (Photo: Kevin Kane/WireImage/Getty Images); Olivia Rodrigo (Photo: Emma McIntyre/Getty Images for Billboard); Billie Eilish (Photo: Kevin Mazur/Getty Images for Live Nation). Bottom: BTS (Photo: The Chosunilbo JNS/Imazins via Getty Images)

The 2022 Grammys are under way in Las Vegas, and this year’s event features plenty of interesting races. Thanks to last year’s controversy over The Weeknd being completely shut out of the nominations, the Recording Academy rolled out a bunch of changes to the rules, making the whole thing more democratic (and transparent) than in previous years.

Adding to the night’s energy is that fact that many of the mainstream pop albums released over the past year were, you know, actually good. The A.V. Club’s music editor has broken down the nominees for many of the top races, including the biggest categories—Record Of The Year, Album Of The Year, Song Of The Year, and Best New Artist—with our predictions for who’s going to win. And, since we also have our own preferences, we’ve included who we think should win, likelihood be damned.

It should be noted, we have a proud tradition of being extremely bad at predicting the winners of these awards shows. So if you’re relying on us for your office betting pool, maybe take these selections with a grain of salt, is all we’re saying. Okay! Let’s make some damn guesses!

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Album Of The Year

We Are, Jon Batiste
Love For Sale, Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga
Justice (Triple Chucks Deluxe), Justin Bieber
Planet Her (Deluxe), Doja Cat
Happier Than Ever, Billie Eilish
Back Of My Mind, H.E.R.
Montero, Lil Nas X
SOUR, Olivia Rodrigo
evermore, Taylor Swift
Donda, Kanye West

Will win: Olivia Rodrigo had the kind of year most breakout artists could only dream of, so a sweep of all the major categories isn’t out of the question here. Likewise, Billie Eilish is a darling of these awards, and could easily take home another trophy. However: At this point, Taylor Swift is Grammy royalty, second only to Beyoncé in her absolute dominance of the ceremonies. evermore is critically acclaimed and wildly popular—and most important of all, this is the only major category in which she’s nominated, meaning it’s the Academy’s only chance to recognize her work this year. Therefore, expect it to go to Taylor Swift.

Should win: As much as we like evermore (and we really do), there are a couple of contenders. Lil Nas X’s Montero is about as bold and inventive as commercial pop gets, and even if it’s not wholly successful, that kind of swing deserves to be rewarded. But when it comes to the year’s best all-killer-no-filler pop album, Olivia Rodrigo’s SOUR is the winner.

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Record Of The Year

“I Still Have Faith In You,” ABBA
“Freedom,” Jon Batiste
“I Get A Kick Out Of You,” Tony Bennet and Lady Gaga
“Peaches,” Justin Bieber
“Right On Time,” Brandi Carlile
“Kiss Me More,” SZA featuring Doja Cat
“Happier Than Ever,” Billie Eilish
“Montero (Call Me By Your Name),” Lil Nas X
“Drivers License,” Olivia Rodrigo
“Leave The Door Open,” Silk Sonic

Will win: Was there a more ubiquitous track this year than “Drivers License”? There’s a slight chance of upset from either “Happier Than Ever” or the beloved Jon Batiste, but not really—this is Rodrigo’s category to lose. (For those who understandably get confused at the difference between Record Of The Year and Song Of The Year, it’s helpful to think of this one more as “Recording Of The Year”—meaning, everyone in the studio who had a hand in crafting the finished track, from the artist to the producers and engineers, gets the award.)

Should win: Yup. It’s actually deserved. Olivia Rodrigo.

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Song Of The Year

“Bad Habits,” Ed Sheeran
“A Beautiful Noise,” Alicia Keys featuring Brandi Carlile
“Drivers License,” Olivia Rodrigo
“Fight For You,” H.E.R.
“Happier Than Ever,” Billie Eilish
“Kiss Me More,” Doja Cat featuring SZA
“Leave The Door Open,” Silk Sonic
“Montero (Call Me By Your Name),” Lil Nas X
“Peaches,” Justin Bieber
“Right On Time,” Brandi Carlile

Will win: Just as Record Of The Year is really “Recording,” think of this category more as “Songwriter Of The Year,” given to the people who actually crafted those melodies and words. H.E.R. has been recognized in the past, and is clearly (and rightly) an Academy favorite. But Olivia Rodrigo’s dominance is undeniable: “Drivers License,” all the way.

Should win: As good as “Drivers License” is, we can’t help but be drawn to the perfectly executed R&B magic of Silk Sonic’s “Leave The Door Open.” Bruno Mars and Anderson .Paak are very, very good at what they do—making the extremely difficult feel effortless. Maybe too good at it, which is why they probably won’t be recognized.

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Best New Artist

Arooj Aftab
Jimmie Allen
Baby Keem
Glass Animals
Japanese Breakfast
Arlo Parks
Finneas
The Kid Laroi
Olivia Rodrigo
Saweetie

Will win: This is as close to a sure thing as you can get. It was Olivia Rodrigo’s year, and she may as well just head up onstage the second they start reading the nominees.

Should win: The Best New Artist nominees list is frequently hilarious, for the simple reason that it should probably be renamed “Best Artist Who’s Finally Gotten Commercially Successful Enough For Us To Be Aware Of Them.” It’s the only way to justify artists like Japanese Breakfast and Glass Animals appearing (the latter are more than a decade into their existence, for god’s sake). So while it’d be great to see Michelle Zauner win a Grammy, there’s an actual new artist on the list whose debut album is as potent and transportive as anything we’ve heard in the past year: Arooj Aftab.

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Best R&B Album

Temporary Highs In The Violet Skies, Snoh Aalegra
We Are, Jon Batiste
Gold-Diggers Sound, Leon Bridges
Back Of My Mind, H.E.R.
Heaux Tales, Jazmine Sullivan

Will win: This is a real toss-up. Jon Batiste and H.E.R. are both widely acclaimed artists whose omnipresence in both the Academy and pop culture means they’ve likely got tons of supporters voting for them. But this is Leon Bridges’ third appearance in this category, meaning he’s overdue for a win. Still, chalk it up to our skepticism that quality will ever trump industry pull; we’re calling this one for Jon Batiste.

Should win: Is there any universe in which we would argue that The A.V. Club’s second-best album of 2021 shouldn’t also be the Best R&B Album winner? Give this to Jazmine Sullivan and her unimpeachable Heaux Tales.

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Best Rap Album

The Off Season, J. Cole
Call Me If You Get Lost, Tyler, The Creator
King’s Disease 2, Nas
Donda, Kanye West

Will win: Drake withdrew Certified Lover Boy from consideration here, leaving only four nominees, but it’s just as well: That uneven record shouldn’t be anyone’s Best Rap Album, and certainly not in a year that gave us something as good as Call Me If You Get Lost. Unfortunately, Tyler, The Creator is up against longtime Academy fave J. Cole, whose The Off-Season is widely popular; even if it’s not up to the standards of his better work, expect J. Cole to win this one. (How the mighty have fallen, Kanye West.)

Should win: Have you heard Tyler, The Creator’s latest album yet? If not, queue it up right now while you’re reading this—it’s that good.

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Best Dance/Electronic Album

Subconsciously, Black Coffee
Fallen Embers, Illenium
Music Is the Weapon (Reloaded), Major Lazer
Shockwave, Marshmello
Free Love, Sylvan Esso
Judgement, Ten City

Will win: Ugh. The Academy has a pretty rotten track record when it comes to this category, and we don’t expect this year to be any different. Look for the uninspired shrug of either Marshmello or Major Lazer to take this one. [Flips coin.] Huh, okay, Major Lazer it is.

Should win: Black Coffee’s Subconsciously is pretty great, but we’re going to have to go with longtime A.V. Club favorite Sylvan Esso, whose Free Love is a beautifully meditative evolution from their previous sounds.

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Best Rock Album

Power Up, AC/DC
Capitol Cuts—Live From Studio A, Black Pumas
No One Sings Like You Anymore Vol. 1, Chris Cornell
Medicine At Midnight, Foo Fighters
McCartney III, Paul McCartney

Will win: Speaking of appalling categories, this is the best the Academy could muster for Best Rock Album nominees? To quote the queen, give us a fucking break. Maybe next year they can find some contemporary rockers other than the perfectly fine but awfully easy-listening tendencies of Black Pumas. Nonetheless, are you even allowed to nominate Paul McCartney for an award and not give it to him? Perennial mainstays Foo Fighters might pull off an upset (for what is easily one of their worst albums), but don’t count on it. Sir Paul McCartney for the win.

Should win: There was absolutely no expectation that AC/DC’s Power Up would kick as much ass as it does, but here we are. A great record from one of the all-time greats, who are still perpetually under-appreciated? Let’s let AC/DC have a victory lap.

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Best Alternative Music Album

Shore, Fleet Foxes - Shore
If I Can’t Have Love, I Want Power, Halsey
Jubilee, Japanese Breakfast
Collapsed in Sunbeams, Arlo Parks
Daddy’s Home, St. Vincent

Will win: Despite just barely squeaking on to our list of the best albums of 2021, Halsey’s latest just didn’t seem to move the needle much in the collective consciousness. Thus, we’re going with St. Vincent to take this one—Daddy’s Home is not her best work, but it sure is memorable.

Should win: As good as Arlo Park’s Collapsed In Sunbeams is—and it is quite good, indeed—Jubilee was The A.V. Club pick for the best album of 2021. Japanese Breakfast’s Michelle Zauner pulls off a remarkable feat on that album, outdoing nearly everyone else currently looking back to ’80s pop for inspiration, and on the heels of a great memoir, no less. She’s humble about it, but take our word for it.

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Best Pop Vocal Album

Justice (Triple Chucks Deluxe), Justin Bieber
Planet Her (Deluxe), Doja Cat
Happier Than Ever, Billie Eilish
Positions, Ariana Grande
SOUR, Olivia Rodrigo

Will win: Ariana Grande did some interesting things on Positions—just as Billie Eilish did with Happier Than Ever—but it’s simply not going to be enough. This is Olivia Rodrigo’s night, and everyone else is just there in case the Academy decides to be nice and spread the love around a little. Probably not in this case, however.

Should win: Doja Cat breathed a little oddball life into Planet Her, but honestly, it wasn’t enough of her signature idiosyncrasy. So we’re going to give his one to Billie Eilish, partly because we genuinely think Happier Than Ever is a better record than it has gotten credit for being, but also because Olivia Rodrigo is already going to have too many awards to carry.

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