Grammys 2023 predictions: Who will win—and who should win

Will win: Steve Lacy, Gemini RightsThis is also a bit of a manifestation, as Lacy’s time in the spotlight has felt like a long time coming. It would also be very classic of the Grammys to not give Lacy any of the major awards throughout the evening and instead give him this win, something they’ve done to several Black artists with major releases over the years (see: Frank Ocean’s Channel Orange, Beyoncé’s Lemonade, and Lizzo’s Cuz I Love You). It’s our hope they give him more kudos than this, but we’ll only know when the time comes. Should win: Steve Lacy, Gemini Rights This has been a banner year for Steve Lacy, one of the brainchildren of R&B group The Internet, who’s gone on to carve out his own space as a producer and singer-songwriter. The Internet was previously nominated for Ego Death in the category when Lacy was just 17. Seven years later, Lacy has only upped his game. While “Bad Habit” was a runaway hit from Gemini Rights, the full album is experimental, multi-faceted and by all means, “progressive.” [Gabrielle Sanchez]

Should win: Kendrick Lamar, Mr. Morale & The Big SteppersSince the nominations lack nods for standouts Earl Sweatshirt and billy woods, Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers is the clear choice here. Although the project is far from Kendrick Lamar’s best work or even his most consequential, the vast and nimbly produced album is still a strong addition to his canon, and one that sonically outpaces every other nominee here (Future comes closest to meeting that bar, although Pusha T’s It’s Almost Dry was a stronger effort overall). Will win: Kendrick Lamar, Mr. Morale & The Big SteppersEven the Academy’s eldest and most curmudgeonly voters can be swayed by a Pulitzer Prize. Kendrick’s reflective, generational music may not always resonate, but it’s well within the Grammy voting body’s wheelhouse; after all, they’ve nominated him 47 times across his career. There’s always the storm cloud possibility of a in the name of Jack Harlow, but one can only hope the Academy learned its lesson and learned it good. [Hattie Lindert]

Will Win: Beyoncé, RenaissanceAlthough both Odesza and Rufus Dü Sol enjoy cult-like followings in the genre, unless the majority of Grammy voters spent their winter sweating out liquor under club lights in Bozeman and Salt Lake City, no track from either artist stands a chance of eclipsing “Cuff It.” Luckily, the most deserving album here also feels like the likely choice: the Grammys understand Beyoncé’s influence (and what it means to piss off her stans). What are they going to do, give it to Diplo?Should Win: Beyoncé, RenaissanceRegardless of the category she ends up nominated in, Beyoncé said it herself on “Alien Superstar”—she’s one of one. Beyonce’s foray into dance music wasn’t a detour, or even a pivot, from her past work: It’s an expansion and amalgamation of skills and collaborators, as well as a joyous ode to the unapologetically Black roots of House music. Renaissance isn’t just the best album among these nominees, it’s the most seminal dance project this year. [Hattie Lindert]

Will Win: The Black Keys, Dropout BoogieAs it currently stands, The Black Keys feel like the band best primed for some sort of legacy win. Awarding The Black Keys in 2023 aligns with the winners from previous years (The Strokes, Cage The Elephant, The War On Drugs), who are still considered titans of the indie rock scene in the late 2000s and early 2010s, despite releasing works of little value since then. Although the Academy could make the monstrous choice to give the win to Machine Gun Kelly, The Black Keys hit their mark of name recognition and unoffensive rock music they just love to eat up. Should Win: Spoon, Lucifer On The SofaFor the first two decades of their illustrious career, Spoon managed to remain overlooked by the Academy. It’s pretty unfathomable that none of their previous records (The Rent I Pay, Gimme Fiction, Ga Ga Ga Ga Ga, or even Hot Thoughts) received so much as a single nod, but here we are. As far as Spoon’s albums go, is a solid representation of the impeccable songwriting style and high-level production we’ve come to expect from and Jim Eno. Lucifer in many ways represents the band’s return to their roots, tracing a path from their raucous early days to their more modern, slicked back iterations. As a writer who spent her young adulthood going to any Spoon show available in Austin, Texas, I have to root for this outcome. [Gabrielle Sanchez]

Will win: Wet Leg, Wet LegWet Leg: You love ’em, you hate ’em, or you’ve never even heard of the from the viral duo, who found a massive fanbase within the algorithm of Tik Tok. Their explosive rise over the last year has been admirable, as they’ve quickly established themselves as the ones to watch in the alternative sphere. With a nomination for as well, Wet Leg seems primed to secure this win. If they do manage a victory, Wet Leg would herald in the next-gen of alt-stars. Paired with the band’s commercial popularity (as seen with the embrace by pop stars), they toe the line between accessible and edgy that could hit the Academy voters just right.Should win: Big Thief, Dragon New Warm Mountain I Believe In YouBig Thief released one of the with the spellbinding, sincere, and ambitious . It’s pretty incredible to see a band refuse to settle and continuously expand upon their songwriting, all while not losing their head. The group previously snagged a nomination for U.F.O.F., and DNWMIBIY feels like the perfect offering to bestow the award upon. Similar to Spoon, the nomination for Big Thief comes when they’re at the top of their game. [Gabrielle Sanchez]

Will Win: Adele, 30The Grammys love Adele. They’ve shown it time and again. Even in the age of streaming, she still sells records—in 2021, 30 sold more copies than any other album in the world. We don’t expect Adele to take home the top prizes this year, but it feels unlikely that the Grammys will send her home empty-handed, either. Should win: Adele, 30Adele is hardly an underdog and thus not the most fun to root for, but that doesn’t change the fact that 30 really is the strongest album out of these nominees—and the best of her career. While 30 didn’t make the Album Of The Year-level impact of Adele’s previous offerings, she still deserves recognition for this work. [Drew Gillis]