Grammys 2023 predictions: Who will win—and who should win

Will win: Beyoncé, Renaissance

Sorry, everyone, we’re not taking any chances with this one. This is full manifestation mode. We’re not looking for a repeat of 2015 or 2017—Adele’s 30 be damned. The Recording Academy loves to nominate Beyoncé, but does not like to give her top honors, and it’s time for her to pick up her first Album Of The Year win.

Should win: Beyoncé, Renaissance 

We’re not only saying Beyoncé will win, we’re saying she absolutely should. When it comes to writing, production, and cultural impact, her fellow nominees pale in comparison to Renaissance. The release of Renaissance was a worldwide moment, and one that brought dance and club music to the forefront. In all senses, it was the Album Of The Year. [Gabrielle Sanchez]

Will win: Lizzo

Not only was “About Damn Time” about damn everywhere last year, it’s exactly the kind of track the Academy loves. Building on a bodacious retro-funk hook with punchy, confident lyrics that are as classically Lizzo as it gets, “About Damn Time” is a behemoth of an earworm from one of the industry’s favorite triple-(quadruple? quintuple?) threats. Although every voter probably didn’t nail down the song’s companion TikTok dance before casting their ballot, we don’t imagine they dismissively scrolled past their younger relatives’ renditions, either.

Should win: Steve Lacy

Who wasn’t won over by “Bad Habit” this year? A hallmark example of TikTok’s sway on Top 40 music, Lacy’s track is endlessly listenable despite being inescapable, and feels fresh and energetic even while languishing over a soft and simple guitar rhythm. It doesn’t exactly sound like a hit, and that’s part of what makes it such a flexible one. Everyone’s made that one mistake that owns a mansion in your mind years after the fact: with “Bad Habit,” Lacy crafted a song as replayable as that enduring faux-pas, and as satisfying as finally letting it slide into oblivion. [Hattie Lindert]

Will win: Måneskin

Typically, the Grammys favor a “new” artist who already has some time in the business (and more than a little bit of shine.) That categorization screams Eurovision winners Måneskin, who’ve managed to build a broad audience off a glamorized look and a major MTV Music Video Awards performance. Rapper Latto also makes a safe (and frankly, extremely deserving) bet—her singles “It’s Givin” and “Big Energy” both took off on TikTok this year, and she maintained and built upon a brazenly confident and catchy flow since her 2019 breakout single “Bitch From Da Souf.”

Should win: Domi & JD Beck

In a grab-bag category spanning genre and actual artist “newness,” why not award some points for genre-exploding weirdness? With their stylized, doll-like aesthetic and big-name cosigns, Domi & JD Beck have established a lane that feels both fresh and instructive to the whims and wants of a new generation of music fans. Jazz doesn’t often present as a 19-year-old’s game, but the French duo brings virtuosic skill and omnivorous tastes to their work in the genre—plus, they don’t fuck around when it comes to a J Dilla beat. If what’s being awarded in this category is freshness, relevance, and what an act adds to the industry, selecting Domi & JD Beck would feel fair and square. [Hattie Lindert]

Will Win: Harry Styles

Let’s face it: “As It Was” burrowed into the most brains of any “Song Of The Year” nominee, and oftentimes that’s the preeminent indicator of a win. A highlight on Harry’s House, “As It Was” utilized Styles’ calculated whimsicality and ubiquitousness to further propel the singer through an ever-widening pop landscape, carving out a clean-cut vagabond lane where no jumpsuit goes unworn. Grammy voters love to throw what their kids know—“As It Was” has the kind of retro charm and modern appeal that can bridge generational tests. Despite all this, however, Styles is far from a shoo-in—any Grammys ballot featuring Academy-favorite Adele promises an uphill battle for her competition.

Should Win: Kendrick Lamar

When it comes to writing, Kendrick’s painstaking return to solo rap deserves recognition here. The Grammys never know what to do with rap music, as Jack Harlow’s presence in the genre categories all but spells out—but Kendrick gave them more than enough to chew on, both lyrically and visually, with “The Heart pt. 5.” Although the track doesn’t appear on Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers, it was a dextrous and solid re-entry into the fold for Kendrick that boasted strong production and barbed but meditative lyrics. [Hattie Lindert]

Will Win: Mary J. Blige, Good Morning Gorgeous

After a Super Bowl performance last year brought The Queen of Hip-Hop Soul’s hit-filled discography back into the limelight, it’s unlikely the Academy will turn its back on Mary J. Blige. Her latest album found her moving towards the introspective, highlighting her voice on softer ballads without sacrificing club-jumpers. Blige already has six Grammys, but hasn’t won since 2008—so now feels like an appropriate time for Academy voters to pick Blige a new bouquet of flowers, and deliver her some more hardware.

Should Win: Robert Glasper

Black Radio III often feels like less of an album and more of a communion, with Glasper recruiting a wide variety of colleagues, from Jennifer Hudson to Esperanza Spaulding to D Smoke, to assist him on the genre opus. Glasper’s meditative project moves seamlessly from track to track while brushing up against a variety of genres outside R&B: soul, jazz, hip-hop, and even a Tears For Fears cover. Black Radio III feels seminal and expansive, and it serves as a valuable divining rod for the constantly evolving genre. [Hattie Lindert]

Will win: Steve Lacy, Gemini Rights

This is also a bit of a manifestation, as Lacy’s time in the spotlight has felt like a long time coming. It would also be very classic of the Grammys to not give Lacy any of the major awards throughout the evening and instead give him this win, something they’ve done to several Black artists with major releases over the years (see: Frank Ocean’s Channel Orange, Beyoncé’s Lemonade, and Lizzo’s Cuz I Love You). It’s our hope they give him more kudos than this, but we’ll only know when the time comes.

Should win: Steve Lacy, Gemini Rights

This has been a banner year for Steve Lacy, one of the brainchildren of R&B group The Internet, who’s gone on to carve out his own space as a producer and singer-songwriter. The Internet was previously nominated for Ego Death in the now-defunct Urban Contemporary Album category when Lacy was just 17. Seven years later, Lacy has only upped his game. While “Bad Habit” was a runaway hit from Gemini Rights, the full album is experimental, multi-faceted and by all means, “progressive.” [Gabrielle Sanchez]

Should win: Kendrick Lamar, Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers

Since the nominations lack nods for standouts Earl Sweatshirt and billy woods, Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers is the clear choice here. Although the project is far from Kendrick Lamar’s best work or even his most consequential, the vast and nimbly produced album is still a strong addition to his canon, and one that sonically outpaces every other nominee here (Future comes closest to meeting that bar, although Pusha T’s It’s Almost Dry was a stronger effort overall).

Will win: Kendrick Lamar, Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers

Even the Academy’s eldest and most curmudgeonly voters can be swayed by a Pulitzer Prize. Kendrick’s reflective, generational music may not always resonate, but it’s well within the Grammy voting body’s wheelhouse; after all, they’ve nominated him 47 times across his career. There’s always the storm cloud possibility of a 2014-style snub in the name of Jack Harlow, but one can only hope the Academy learned its lesson and learned it good. [Hattie Lindert]

Will Win: Beyoncé, Renaissance

Although both Odesza and Rufus Dü Sol enjoy cult-like followings in the genre, unless the majority of Grammy voters spent their winter sweating out liquor under club lights in Bozeman and Salt Lake City, no track from either artist stands a chance of eclipsing “Cuff It.” Luckily, the most deserving album here also feels like the likely choice: the Grammys understand Beyoncé’s influence (and what it means to piss off her stans). What are they going to do, give it to Diplo?

Should Win: Beyoncé, Renaissance

Regardless of the category she ends up nominated in, Beyoncé said it herself on “Alien Superstar”—she’s one of one. Beyonce’s foray into dance music wasn’t a detour, or even a pivot, from her past work: It’s an expansion and amalgamation of skills and collaborators, as well as a joyous ode to the unapologetically Black roots of House music. Renaissance isn’t just the best album among these nominees, it’s the most seminal dance project this year. [Hattie Lindert]

Will Win: The Black Keys, Dropout Boogie

As it currently stands, The Black Keys feel like the band best primed for some sort of legacy win. Awarding The Black Keys in 2023 aligns with the winners from previous years (The Strokes, Cage The Elephant, The War On Drugs), who are still considered titans of the indie rock scene in the late 2000s and early 2010s, despite releasing works of little value since then. Although the Academy could make the monstrous choice to give the win to Machine Gun Kelly, The Black Keys hit their mark of name recognition and unoffensive rock music they just love to eat up.

Should Win: Spoon, Lucifer On The Sofa

For the first two decades of their illustrious career, Spoon managed to remain overlooked by the Academy. It’s pretty unfathomable that none of their previous records (The Rent I Pay, Gimme Fiction, Ga Ga Ga Ga Ga, or even Hot Thoughts) received so much as a single nod, but here we are. As far as Spoon’s albums go, Lucifer On The Sofa is a solid representation of the impeccable songwriting style and high-level production we’ve come to expect from Britt Daniel and Jim Eno. Lucifer in many ways represents the band’s return to their roots, tracing a path from their raucous early days to their more modern, slicked back iterations. As a writer who spent her young adulthood going to any Spoon show available in Austin, Texas, I have to root for this outcome. [Gabrielle Sanchez]

Will win: Wet Leg, Wet Leg

Wet Leg: You love ’em, you hate ’em, or you’ve never even heard of the debut record from the viral duo, who found a massive fanbase within the algorithm of Tik Tok. Their explosive rise over the last year has been admirable, as they’ve quickly established themselves as the ones to watch in the alternative sphere. With a nomination for Best New Artist as well, Wet Leg seems primed to secure this win. If they do manage a victory, Wet Leg would herald in the next-gen of alt-stars. Paired with the band’s commercial popularity (as seen with the embrace by pop stars), they toe the line between accessible and edgy that could hit the Academy voters just right.

Should win: Big Thief, Dragon New Warm Mountain I Believe In You

Big Thief released one of the best albums of the year with the spellbinding, sincere, and ambitious Dragon New Warm Mountain I Believe In You. It’s pretty incredible to see a band refuse to settle and continuously expand upon their songwriting, all while not losing their head. The group previously snagged a nomination for U.F.O.F., and DNWMIBIY feels like the perfect offering to bestow the award upon. Similar to Spoon, the nomination for Big Thief comes when they’re at the top of their game. [Gabrielle Sanchez]

Will Win: Adele, 30

The Grammys love Adele. They’ve shown it time and again. Even in the age of streaming, she still sells records—in 2021, 30 sold more copies than any other album in the world. We don’t expect Adele to take home the top prizes this year, but it feels unlikely that the Grammys will send her home empty-handed, either.

Should win: Adele, 30

Adele is hardly an underdog and thus not the most fun to root for, but that doesn’t change the fact that 30 really is the strongest album out of these nominees—and the best of her career. While 30 didn’t make the Album Of The Year-level impact of Adele’s previous offerings, she still deserves recognition for this work. [Drew Gillis]

Will win: Miranda Lambert, Palomino

Miranda Lambert’s star power held sway with the Grammys’ sizable Nashville voting body, and Palomino landed a strong crossover hit with “Strange.” However, there could be a toss-up here—two-time CMA Entertainer of The Year Luke Combs’ Growin’ Up also has some pull here. And then there’s the matter of veteran Willie Nelson’s upcoming 90th birthday. Although his quiet, reflective project doesn’t pack the same punch as his competitors, the Grammys love an old-head with some ruminating to do.

Should win: Maren Morris, Humble Quest

One of the newer performers on this list, Morris truly cuts her teeth with Humble Quest, a searingly personal and consistently fun journey. One of country’s foremost young stars, Morris has carefully tread a path that honors older artists while forging a new course away from a boys-club industry often defined by homophobia (a recent stint as a RuPaul’s Drag Race guest judge saw Morris come off as both charming and no-bullshit). She has the star power, and the skill to back up a nomination—although long-shot recognition for Lindeville, Ashley McBryde’s triumphant character study, would also feel like a nod towards country’s most exciting new horizons. [Hattie Lindert]