Oscars 2023 Predictions: Who will win and who should win

Our final picks and preferences for what's shaping up to be some very tight races in the major categories

By Cindy White | March 10, 2023 | 1:00pm

Film Features Oscars

Oscars 2023 Predictions: Who will win and who should win

Graphic: A24, Warner Bros. Pictures, Netflix, Searchlight Pictures

The months-long walkup to the 95th Academy Awards has revealed, well, not quite as much as you might think. Usually by this point there are clear frontrunners in the major Oscar categories, but the races are unusually tight this year. Even the usual precursors, like the Critics Choice Awards, the BAFTAs, the Screen Actors Guild Awards, and the Director’s Guild Awards, haven’t been able to agree on much. Which is why so many of these categories remain too close to call—but we’re going to try and call them anyway.
These picks should provide some insight for your Oscar pool ballot, but you could also just go with your gut for many of them. That’s not much different than the way Oscar voters make their choices anyway, so you’ll be in good company.

Here then, are the top categories in alphabetical order, with the exception of best picture because, just like the Oscars broadcast, we’re saving the best for last. Oh, and be sure to check back after the Oscars to see how we did.

Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Austin Butler, ; Colin Farrell, , Brendan Fraser, ; Paul Mescal, ; Bill Nighy, Will win: Austin ButlerShould win: Colin FarrellAustin Butler seems to have the wind behind him as the nominees approach the finish line. The Academy loves to reward transformational performances, especially in biopics, and especially in musical biopics. Butler captured the essence of Elvis Presley, while also making the role his own. He did his own singing and hip-gyrating choreography, and he held onto his Elvis voice long after the film wrapped. That level of commitment is certainly award-worthy. His biggest competition this season has been Brendan Fraser, whose own transformational performance in The Whale won him the Screen Actors Guild and Critics Choice awards. While Fraser is clearly esteemed by his peers and we’d all love to see a triumphant ending to his comeback story, we’re still giving Butler the advantage. His role simply came with greater demands and Elvis got a lot more love in the other categories this year.Meanwhile, Colin Farrell didn’t have any fancy makeup effects to boost his performance in The Banshees Of Inisherin. All he needed were those perfect, all-natural eyebrows. His subdued performance may not have gotten as much attention as the more showy roles in this category, but he delivered a perfectly calibrated slow burn for the ages.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees Of Inisherin; Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway; Judd Hirsch, The Fablemans; Barry Keoghan, The Banshees Of Inisherin; Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At OnceWill win: Ke Huy QuanShould win: Ke Huy QuanIf there is such a thing as a lock in the acting categories this year, it’s got to be Ke Huy Quan for his extraordinary comeback performance in Everything Everywhere All At Once. Despite losing the BAFTA to Barry Keoghan, he’s been a frontrunner all season. And with every award he’s won, we’ve gotten to hear more about his story and the years he spent in exile while trying to get a job in Hollywood after his early success as a child actor. He’s been consistently humble, enthusiastic, and authentic, and if there’s one thing Academy voters love it’s a feel-good narrative. That’s not to say he doesn’t deserve it for his outstanding work on the film. Like everyone in Everything Everywhere All At Once, he plays multiple roles and makes each one completely believable. There’s no lack of consensus that Quan deserves to be recognized among the many great actors in this category. We also think he should win it.

Most Popular

Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees: Cate Blanchett, Tár; Ana de Armas, Blonde; Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie; Michelle Williams, The Fablemans; Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At OnceWill win: Michelle YeohShould win: Michelle Yeoh and Cate BlanchettCan there be a tie at the Oscars? Yes, it’s happened six times before (you try deciding between Katharine Hepburn and Barbra Streisand—the Academy couldn’t). We don’t actually think it will happen this year, though. As tight as the race is, it’s starting to look like Michelle Yeoh will pull ahead in the end. She took home the SAG award, among others, and has momentum on her side. We love that for her. It would be her first Oscar, and the second win ever in the best actress category for a woman of color (the first being Halle Berry for Monster’s Ball in 2002).It’s hard to root against Cate Blanchett, though. Her fearless performance in Tár is the centerpiece around which the entire film is built. Though the two films are very different, they both rely on the strengths of their leading actresses. Yeoh and Blanchett each carried their respective films on their backs, though Yeoh arguably had a better supporting cast. If we had our say, we’d call it a tie and give them both statuettes.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Hong Chau, The Whale; Kerry Condon, The Banshees Of Inisherin; Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once; Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At OnceWill win: Jamie Lee CurtisShould win: Angela BassettMuch like her Everything Everywhere co-star Ke Huy Quan, Jamie Lee Curtis has been lighting up podiums with her entertaining speeches as she picks up one award after another. She’s a joy to watch, and that counts for something. Her win at the SAG Awards was further proof that her surge is real. We wouldn’t go so far as to say her performance in the film is the best (that would be Hsu), but we know that the Academy doesn’t always consider just the role that an actor is up for in that particular year. If Curtis wins it will be because of her entire body of work.Speaking of honoring a career rather than a single role, we’d love to see Angela Bassett walk away with this one. Sure, it’s a long overdue award for a stellar career that’s spanned decades, but we also happen to think she was great in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. It’s tough to say whether the fact that this role was in a Marvel movie will put her at a disadvantage, but superhero or no, she gave everything in that film, and she deserves to be recognized for it.

Animated Feature Film

Nominees: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio; Marcel The Shell With Shoes On; Puss In Boots: The Last Wish; The Sea Beast; Turning RedWill win: Guillermo del Toro’s PinocchioShould win: Guillermo del Toro’s PinocchioIn a year when so many categories are still too close to call, there are still a couple of sure bets. This is one of them. Guillermo del Toro’s stop-motion-animated take on the puppet who dreamed of becoming a real boy is the kind of dark fairytale he does best. So far, Pinocchio has won just about every award it’s been up for this season and there’s no reason to expect that will change. So go ahead and fill out this category in your with confidence.

Cinematography

Nominees: All Quiet On The Western Front; Bardo, False Chronicle Of A Handful Of Truths; Elvis; Empire Of Light; TárWill win: All Quiet On The Western FrontShould win: ElvisIt seems crazy to bet against the legendary Roger Deakins in the cinematography category, but the competition is unusually stiff this year and there hasn’t been much talk around Empire Of Light. Instead, the conversation has focused on BAFTA winner James Friend and his harrowing rendering of the battlefields of World War I in All Quiet On The Western Front. The film has proven to be popular with critics and awards voters, and we don’t see the Academy missing this opportunity to honor it here.That being said, we’re still rooting for Mandy Walker to become the first woman to win for her vivid cinematography in Elvis. Her win at the American Society of Cinematographers Awards came a little late in the season to have much of an impact on the Oscars, but it does show that she has the respect of her peers. Her approach to charting the rise of the rock ‘n’ roll superstar through the decades using custom lenses for each era was masterful, so it would be a much-deserved win as well as a historic one.

Costume Design

Nominees: Babylon; Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Elvis; Everything Everywhere All At Once; Mrs. Harris Goes To ParisWill Win: ElvisShould Win: Black Panther: Wakanda ForeverCatherine Martin—Baz Luhrmann’s creative partner on screen and in real life— has already earned Oscars for best costume design on two of their previous collaborations: Moulin Rouge! and The Great Gatsby. She also won for best production design for both, and is up for an Oscar for both categories once again for her work on Elvis. It’s hard to argue with that track record. From recreating The King’s memorable onstage outfits to dressing everyone on screen in period-appropriate streetwear, she had plenty of opportunities to impress Oscar voters who saw the film.On the other hand, Ruth Carter’s historic Oscar win for her Black Panther costumes in 2019 meant so much to so many, it would be wonderful to see her come back and do it again for the sequel film. In Black Panther: Wakanda Forever she expanded on the designs she previously created, introducing a new look and new cultural references for Namor and his Talocan people. We’d give her an award just for putting Tenoch Huerta in short shorts.

Directing

Nominees: The Banshees Of Inisherin, Martin McDonagh; Everything Everywhere All At Once, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert; The Fabelmans, Steven Spielberg; Tár, Todd Field, Triangle Of Sadness, Ruben ÖstlundWill win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel ScheinertShould win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel ScheinertWith lots of awards under their belts already, it looks like there’s a pretty clear path to victory for the Daniels in the directing category. As much as they were helped by some fantastic performances, the weird and wild experience that is Everything Everywhere All At Once is all down to their collective genius. We can appreciate the way Martin McDonagh made The Banshees Of Inishirin somehow sweeping and claustrophobic at the same time; or the subtle, nightmarish menace Todd Field pulled off in Tár; or even the personal history that infused Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans, but none of them took the kinds of risk and swung for the fences the way the Daniels did. They’ll likely win this award, and definitely should.

Documentary Feature

Nominees: All That Breathes; All The Beauty And The Bloodshed; Fire Of Love; A House Made Of Splinters; NavalnyWill win: NavalnyShould win: NavalnyWith the possible exception of Fire Of Love, none of the nominated documentaries really distinguished themselves this year outside of their particular niches. All That Breathes is about the attempt to save a bird species in the highly polluted city of Delhi. All The Beauty And The Bloodshed is the latest expose on the Sackler family. A House Made Of Spinters depicts children in a group home awaiting custody battles. They’re all pretty standard documentary fare.Navalny, however, plays like a spy thriller as it follows Russian anti-Putin activist Alexei Navalny investigating his attempted assassination by poison in 2020. It doesn’t hurt that the film is timely and has been available on streaming on HBO Max since January. We could also see Fire Of Love, about a couple of married scientists who perished while studying volcanoes, coming in for an upset, but we suspect the opportunity for Academy voters to thumb their noses at Putin by giving it to a film celebrating his enemy will be too good to pass up.

Film Editing

Nominees: The Banshees Of Inisherin; Elvis; Everything Everywhere All At Once; Tár; Top Gun: MaverickWill win: Everything Everywhere All At OnceShould win: Everything Everywhere All At OnceThe other films in this category may have had some skillful and artistic editing, but none had quite as much editing as Everything Everywhere All At Once. It’s not even close. If for some reason things start going wrong and the film doesn’t win as much as we expect it to on Oscar night, at least this one will be a lock. Paul Rogers already has won the ACE award, an Independent Spirit award, a BAFTA, and the Critics Choice award for his work on the film, so we fully expect to see him up on the podium come Oscar night.

International Feature Film

Nominees: All Quiet On The Western Front; Argentina, 1985; Close; EO; The Quiet GirlWill win: All Quiet On The Western FrontShould win: All Quiet On The Western FrontWith Everything Everywhere All At Once looking to take the top prize in the best picture category, this will be the Academy’s best chance to honor All Quiet On The Western Front, a film that has already received lots of accolades, including best film at the BAFTAs (where it picked up a total of seven awards). We don’t think it’ll perform as strongly at the Oscars as it did across the pond, but this one is pretty much guaranteed. This is a film a lot of critics loved, so there’s even a slight chance it could pull off a double win in international feature film and best picture, a feat last accomplished by Parasite in 2020.

Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees: All Quiet On The Western Front; The Batman; Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Elvis; The WhaleWill win: ElvisShould win: ElvisMany Oscar watchers are keeping a close eye on this race as an indication of who might win best actor. Elvis and The Whale are the top contenders here, just as Butler and Fraser are facing off in the acting category. We’re giving the edge to Elvis for its many different looks spanning the decades of Elvis Presley’s rise to fame. We see him go from fresh, young, vibrant heartthrob to a bloated Las Vegas showman. While the fat suit and makeup on Fraser make him nearly unrecognizable in The Whale, it’s pretty much just the one look. We’ll be curious to see if there really is a correlation between this category and the top acting prize.

Music (Original Song)

Nominees: “Applause” from Tell It Like A Woman; “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick; “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; “Naatu Naatu” from RRR, “This Is A Life” from Everything Everywhere All At OnceWill win: “Naatu Naatu”Should win: “Naatu Naatu”One of the things we’re most excited to see on the Oscar broadcast is the live performance of “Naatu Naatu.” We just know it’s going to bring the house down. The song already won a Golden Globe and could make history by repeating that feat at the Oscars. RRR became an international sensation last year, but didn’t get much in the way of Academy Award nominations (India didn’t even submit RRR as its official national film), so it would be the best way to acknowledge the film and its unexpected popularity. Not only that but it’s the only diegetic number in this category, which serves to move the film’s story forward rather than simply providing a background vibe. It may sound wild to pick this song over tracks from the likes of Lady Gaga, Rihanna, Diane Warren, and David Byrne, but we call it like we see it.

Sound

Nominees: All Quiet On The Western Front; Avatar: The Way Of Water; The Batman; Elvis; Top Gun: MaverickWill win: Top Gun: MaverickShould win: All Quiet On The Western FrontThere was a time when Top Gun: Maverick was seriously in the conversation for best picture, but now it’s looking like this category might be its best chance to win anything at the Oscars. We expect the Academy to take the opportunity to ensure the biggest film of 2022 doesn’t go home empty-handed (lest they seem elitist and out of touch). The sound team really did do a great job making us feel like we were in the sky with those planes, so we wouldn’t be mad at this win. It could also be another chance to award All Quiet On The Western Front, which also recreated an immersive soundscape based in military conflict (albeit many decades apart), but chances are the Academy will go with the populist choice here.

Visual Effects

Nominees: All Quiet On The Western Front; Avatar: The Way Of Water; The Batman; Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Top Gun: MaverickWill win: Avatar: The Way Of WaterShould win: Avatar: The Way Of WaterWhy even nominate four other films in this category when we all know there’s no way Avatar: The Way Of Water isn’t taking this award home. Other than best picture, all of the other nominations for this film are in technical categories, and this is its best chance to win something. The main appeal of the film was its visual effects, and no other film last year relied as heavily on them, so for the Academy to choose anything else would be unthinkable. If we were to rank these categories from our most confident prediction down to the least confident, this one would be at the top. It’s an easy point for your Oscar ballot, too.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Nominees: All Quiet On The Western Front, Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, Ian Stokell; Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Rian Johnson; Living, Kazuo Ishiguro; Top Gun: Maverick Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie, Peter Craig, Justin Marks; Women Talking, Sarah PolleyWill win: Women Talking, Sarah PolleyShould win: Women Talking, Sarah PolleyThis award often goes to a single writer, and this year Sarah Polley fits the bill (also, women filmmakers tend to win more often for screenplay than for directing). Her contemplative, delicate script for Women Talking captured the spirit of Miriam Toews’ novel, and with wins at the Critics Choice Awards, WGA Awards, and Independent Spirit Awards, it’s got some heat coming into the Oscars. It’s too bad the film didn’t get more attention, but this may be its place to shine. We also have to put in a good word for Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, a sentimental favorite that we don’t think will or should win, but in some cases, a nomination is a win in itself.

Best Writing (Original Screenplay)

Nominees: The Banshees Of Inisherin, Martin McDonagh; Everything Everywhere All At Once, Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert; The Fablemans, Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner; Tár, Todd Field; Triangle Of Sadness, Ruben ÖstlundWill win: Everything Everywhere All At OnceShould win: The Banshees Of InisherinThis is another one that’s difficult to predict. The strengths of Everything Everywhere are in its performances, directing, and editing, but if we were to define the term “original” not as the Academy intends it (as in not based on any previous work) but to mean fresh, inventive, and unexpected, then Everything Everywhere wins hands down. In terms of screenwriting craft, though, we would love to see The Banshees Of Inisherin win here. Martin McDonagh’s writing is so nuanced and layered with meaning. As simple as it seems, there’s so much to unpack in the film. That’s something very difficult to pull off and we think he should be rewarded for it.