BEST ACTRESS
Nominees: Cynthia Erivo, Wicked; Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez; Mikey Madison, Anora; Demi Moore, The Substance; Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Prediction: Demi Moore has an even bigger comeback narrative than her peer in the Best Actor race, Adrien Brody. She also has the added benefit of playing a role that’s seen as particularly ballsy and egoless, filled with nudity and nastiness and industry commentary. It’s a chance for the Academy to feel both subversive (Moore does turn into a nasty meat monster) and straightforward (a box-office staple starring in a flashy arthouse pivot). That said, Fernanda Torres boasts a more traditional film, a more traditional performance, and the backing of many international voters.
Preference: But how do you watch Anora and not fall for Mikey Madison? Torres would be a totally deserving winner here, and Moore is far better than the rest of the nominees (though nobody can belt like Erivo), but Madison’s performance—which both rides a whirlwind fairy tale and embodies a tornado when that fairy tale starts falling apart—goes broad and subtle, embodying deep pathos and ridiculous slapstick. When your performance involves one of the year’s best fight scenes, sex scenes, and pronunciations of “fraud,” it’s hard to root against.
BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist; Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown; Colman Domingo, Sing Sing; Ralph Fiennes, Conclave; Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Prediction: Adrien Brody’s long-coming return to the Oscars since his history-making win (and his excellent, immersive performance in The Brutalist) is probably too much for any of the other nominees to overcome. It’s the role that allows its performer to show off the most range of any of the nominees, it’s serious-minded and multilingual, and it’s not an imitation of a president we’d all rather never look at ever again. Ralph Fiennes might be outshined by his flashy Conclave ensemble, and I have a feeling Sing Sing simply wasn’t a big enough movie for most voters to seriously consider Colman Domingo. Timothée Chalamet, though, could come from behind with a turn (and a musical biopic role) that’s catnip for a particular kind of older-school voter—especially since he took home the Screen Actors Guild’s top award this year.
Preference: This is Brody’s year through and through, with his wounded and proud performance forming the rock-solid foundation of one of the year’s best movies.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown; Ariana Grande, Wicked; Felicity Jones, The Brutalist; Isabella Rossellini, Conclave; Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Prediction: A weaker year where this category’s legacy nominations range from the ridiculous (Zoe Saldaña) to the barely there (Isabella Rossellini), this pick comes down to how successfully Saldaña can shake off the stain of her Emilia Pérez co-star. My guess is that this is the main category where voters decide to reward the Netflix musical, because it’s the easiest to separate out from the controversy. Saldaña’s resume boasts the double-whammy of Avatar and Avengers movies, which, for some voters at least, creates the idea that she’s “paid her franchise dues” and is ready to be awarded for her serious turn, even if it’s in a deeply unserious movie.
Preference: As much as I respect Ariana Grande’s chipper performance in Wicked, which is mostly just a decent Kristin Chenoweth impression, and as much as I appreciate Isabella Rossellini dishing it out for a few moments in Conclave, Felicity Jones was both legitimately surprising and impressive in The Brutalist. Layering charm and venom without batting an eye, Jones gives a subtle turn with a few explosive moments; it’s a showcase for her abilities in a role that could’ve easily been a more stereotypical long-suffering wife character.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees: Yura Borisov, Anora; Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain; Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown; Guy Pearce, The Brutalist; Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Prediction: Kieran Culkin has been at the front of this race since last year’s Sundance and, despite Edward Norton appeasing the biopic crowd and Yura Borisov stealing all his scenes as a newcomer to American film, it’s still his race to lose. That’s partially due to the design of the role: In a quieter indie playing off a familiarly timid performance from filmmaker-star Jesse Eisenberg, Culkin gets to be loud, charming, and emotionally damaged. It’s also the closest thing to a co-lead role in this crop.
Preference: It’s a strong category this year, with even the weakest of the bunch—Jeremy Strong’s dead-eyed performance as Roy Cohn—still dominating his movie. I like most of these movies more than A Real Pain (and most of the performances more than Culkin’s manic schtick), but Guy Pearce’s turn in The Brutalist is top-tier work from a long underappreciated actor. Abjectly evil, yet constantly open about who and what he is, Pearce’s character is named for two presidents and a Confederate general—he could’ve easily just been a villainous symbol. But Pearce turns the industrialist blowhard into a bundle of raging complexities, spewing forth beneath a clipped mustache.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees: Anora; The Brutalist; A Real Pain; September 5; The Substance
Prediction: I see this going one of two ways. Either The Substance lands this and Best Actress through sheer boldness, or this will be just another stop on the Anora victory train. Most of these are from writer-directors, who always do well in this category, so that’s not a helpful metric to judge by. The Writers Guild gave their award to Anora, though The Substance wasn’t eligible. I do wonder if this will serve as an apologetic “we still appreciate you showing up” award for The Substance, if that film ends up mostly ceding the rest of the awards to less goopy fare.
Preference: Good for September 5 for sneaking into this category, but its quietly competent (yet politically hands-off) historical drama is out of its league. Because I find The Substance to be a bit of an overwrought bludgeon and A Real Pain never quite combines its quippiness and its serious pivots, I’m once again torn between Anora and The Brutalist. Anora gets the edge here because of how effortlessly its realistic screwball chaos rushes through different tonal modes, from the deeply comic to the frantic and painful.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees: Emilia Pérez; Sing Sing; A Complete Unknown; Nickel Boys; Conclave
Prediction: Though Conclave is a surprisingly well-framed movie considering its catty, chatty subject matter, it’s that twisty, snappy, pulpy script that people remember. It’s a middlebrow crowd-pleaser that acts a lot smarter than it is, and it even has a confused political kicker that I can imagine playing very well with the same kind of voters who didn’t think too hard about Emilia Pérez. It wasn’t eligible for the WGA awards, so that’s no help in terms of predictions, but the Guild did show up for my personal preference in the category.
Preference: The true feat of adaptation this year is Nickel Boys, which elegantly and intelligently unpacks the evolving world and identities inside Colson Whitehead’s Pulitzer-winning novel. A more typical adaptation would attempt to flatten the Jim Crow-era reform school narrative out, and be more explicit and heavy-handed as it leaps across time. But RaMell Ross and superstar producer/co-writer Joslyn Barnes eschewed the standard, and kept the story hands-off, poetic, and breathtaking.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Nominees: Flow; Inside Out 2; Memoir Of A Snail; Wallace & Gromit: Murder Most Fowl; The Wild Robot
Prediction: It’s more than a little wild that a silent international animated feature like Flow is a frontrunner here. But its more mainstream competitor has some similar qualities: fewer words, more world-building, lots of little animals, multiple nominations outside this category. Though The Wild Robot boasts nominations for Score and Sound (and it’s one of the most artfully minded films to ever come out of DreamWorks), Flow’s tale of a gaggle of assorted animals surviving a flooded post-human world nabbed a nod in the International category, which, in my mind, will be seen by voters as a little more prestigious than some of the more technical fields. My vote sits with the year’s cutest cinematic cat.
Preference: My heart, however, belongs with the brilliant bumbling stop-motion of Wallace & Gromit: Murder Most Fowl. I like both Flow and The Wild Robot, but neither is as pure or virtuosic a success as Wallace & Gromit returning to form. Playing the hits with bits of surprising, hilarious innovation, the Aardman folks more than make up for totally laying an egg with their Chicken Run sequel.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Nominees: Black Box Diaries; No Other Land; Porcelain War; Soundtrack To A Coup d’Etat; Sugarcane
Prediction: It would be groundbreaking for No Other Land to snag this trophy, as the Israel-Palestine co-production still doesn’t have distribution in the U.S. Its on-the-ground recounting of a single Palestinian community’s ongoing destruction is infuriating, political, and vitally of the moment. Are all of those reasons for the more cynically minded to bet against it on such a big stage? Well, yes, certainly so, especially with such a crowded field of good docs. But No Other Land has been taken up by critics everywhere as the year’s nonfiction to stump for, because—as noted by its complete abandonment by the folks who could actually get it in front of audiences—it has nobody else in its corner. This would be a hell of a statement from the Academy, and I hope they make it.
Preference: This is maybe my favorite category of the year. All of these films are at least good, with Ukrainian war doc Porcelain War being outshone by the intimate bravery of Black Box Diaries’ #MeToo investigation, Sugarcane’s gorgeous reckoning with residential schools, and Soundtrack To A Coup d’Etat’s rollicking, jazzy history lesson. But nothing comes close to No Other Land’s harrowing, immediate plea.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Nominees: Emilia Pérez; Flow; The Girl With The Needle; I’m Still Here; The Seed Of The Sacred Fig
Prediction: If you’d asked me a month ago, I would’ve said that Emilia Pérez had this category wrapped up. And hey, since it’s a French-made story about Mexico, starring a bunch of Americans and a Spaniard, it fits into that old Oscars joke where it may not be the best international film, but it is the most international film. But I’m Still Here—a rock-solid drama with a hell of a lead performance—also has Best Actress and Best Picture nominations, and plenty of goodwill to spare. Whichever way it goes, social media will be full of Brazilians either celebrating or lamenting the decision.
Preference: I’m Still Here would be a great choice, but I’d love to see some more recognition for The Seed Of The Sacred Fig. With cast and crew ostracized by their home country for the production, the Iranian film is searing and immediate—and an impressive criticism of the nation that filmmaker Mohammad Rasoulof is currently fleeing.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nominees: Nosferatu; The Brutalist; Dune: Part Two; Emilia Pérez; Maria
Prediction: You don’t shoot in countless formats—including VistaVision—and not come out on top in a category run by camera geeks. I’d be shocked if The Brutalist didn’t have this in the beautiful, grainy, expansive bag. I’ll fill this in more when the American Society Of Cinematographers announces their awards, but Nosferatu is the only film I see holding a period-appropriate candle to the frontrunner. But shadowy lighting and a loving attention to detail also show up in Lol Crawley’s Brutalist work…just sans heavy-breathing vampire.
Preference: The striking work in The Brutalist, which shoots gauzy heroin dreams as confidently as stark construction sites, is a well-rounded showcase of its filmmaker’s imagination and Crawley’s ability to turn it into tangible images. The grander themes of the film play out in its style, imposing yet minimalist, a little showy yet dedicated to the final product over anything else. Nosferatu looks great, and Dune: Part Two shoots in a way that allows the film to blend in its endless FX shots beautifully, but Brutalist should come away with this one.
BEST FILM EDITING
Nominees: Anora; The Brutalist; Conclave; Emilia Pérez; Wicked
Prediction: The American Cinema Editors haven’t made their call yet, which makes this a hard one to weigh in on, but you can (hopefully) count out the jarringly slapdash cutting of both Emilia Pérez and Wicked. Anora, with its bold yet competent transitions and addictive start-stop pacing, seems like the call—especially since writer-director Sean Baker is also the film’s editor. The Academy loves a multihyphenate.
Preference: I’d be happy with either an Anora or Brutalist win, with the latter impressing with its combination of all those different shooting formats and its structuring of its epic into a classical two-part-plus-epilogue format.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Nominees: The Brutalist; Conclave; Emilia Pérez; Wicked; The Wild Robot
Prediction: If I wanted to be a jerk, and I do, I’d say Conclave and its oppressive score will take this Oscar simply because it’s the loudest and most obnoxiously deployed of all the nominees. When in doubt, place your vote for the film that has the gaudiest example of its nominated element. But, bolstering this selection, Emilia Pérez has some terrible music and Wicked left it all on the court with its soundtrack—who can recall the soundscape around “Defying Gravity”?
Preference: That leaves The Brutalist’s thrilling piano-forward score as my personal choice. The Wild Robot’s music does more heavy lifting than in most animated movies considering the frequent passages with minimal dialogue, but Daniel Blumberg’s Brutalist work stuck with me far longer. Honestly, though, this whole category is a fraud because Challengers didn’t get nominated. Whichever film wins, I’ll still be bumping Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’ new club classic.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Nominees: Emilia Pérez (“El Mal”); Elton John: Never Too Late (“Never Too Late”); Emilia Pérez (“Mi Camino”); The Six Triple Eight (“The Journey”); Sing Sing (“Like A Bird”)
Prediction: I have my doubts that either of the monotonous Emilia Pérez tunes will take this win, especially if they siphon votes from each other, and I’d think the Elton John song would stand a better chance if it had appeared in something other than an Elton John documentary. That leaves me in the unlikely position of thinking that perennial nominee Diane Warren will win here for a song that was in a Tyler Perry Netflix movie that everyone agreed was pretty awful. “The Journey” does have something else going for it, though: It’s been performed by H.E.R., who’s made the song very visible and has already won an Oscar in this category.
Preference: Just don’t give it to the Emilia Pérez songs, unless there’s a last-minute pivot and the award can be given to “La Vaginoplastia” as a joke.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Nominees: The Brutalist; Wicked; Conclave; Nosferatu; Dune: Part Two
Prediction: Though it might look like someone washed a CG version of Oz a few too many times on a high setting, Wicked’s behind-the-scenes stories have mostly been about how much effort went into constructing its physical world. So, despite not coming across on screen, all that work (and all those tulips!) might be rewarded by people who can really relate to it.
Preference: Though the more grounded entries of The Brutalist and Conclave do a great job transporting us into their specific corners of the world, and the Dune team has consistently found evocative ways to make their alien universe pop, the plague-ridden realm of Nosferatu lives and dies (and persists in undeath) by its production design. This is a claustrophobic world in the process of falling apart, a world rotting from the inside even in the most decadently appointed homes. Cast it all in a fireplace’s light, and you have one of the year’s most atmospheric films.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Nominees: Conclave; Gladiator II; Nosferatu; A Complete Unknown; Wicked
Prediction: Alas, Denzel Washington’s flowy Roman attire and countless rings probably won’t be honored at this year’s Oscars. Instead, it’s likely that Wicked’s big, bold, recognizable outfits will seize their moment in the spotlight. The Costume Designers Guild splits their awards into Contemporary, Period, and Sci-Fi/Fantasy categories, with Conclave and Nosferatu taking the former two and Wicked the latter, but when expanding it out onto the bigger stage, I expect the flashy Broadway-to-blockbuster glitz to win.
Preference: Linda Muir’s work in Nosferatu is just another hyper-detailed element that helps render Robert Eggers’ obsessive period-appropriate vision of his vampire tale. The layers, the shifting locales, the formal clothing being rent asunder by madness and monsters—the outfits do just as much heavy lifting as every other visual department on the film.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR
Nominees: The Substance; Emilia Pérez; Nosferatu; A Different Man; Wicked
Prediction: A category that loves to reward the loud and the obvious, especially when it comes to transformations, this time the Makeup and Hair award may end up acting as an award for The Substance’s effects team as a whole. The combo of practical and digital effects made all those complex prosthetics and puppets shine, as the film’s heroine has her body used and abused until it’s a big ol’ meat monster. You simply don’t have a film without the excellent work of The Substance’s effects team.
Preference: While I’d love to stump for A Different Man, a great movie, in the only category it got nominated in, it’s a far smarter and funnier and more empathetic movie than its gimmicky single nom reflects. I’d rather this one go to something like The Substance that fully relies on the effectiveness of these creations throughout the film. That may sound like damning the film with faint praise, but really it’s recognizing when a team has made something absolutely essential to the whole.
BEST SOUND
Nominees: Dune: Part Two; Emilia Pérez; Wicked; A Complete Unknown; The Wild Robot
Prediction: Until I learned that all of Wicked’s solo musical performances were sung live on set—which is truly nuts and speaks to the ever-flexible talents of Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande—A Complete Unknown seemed like the shoo-in here. I still err on the side of the biopic, because its performances were also mostly done live on set and they showed off Timothée Chalamet’s ability not just to sing, but to sing-act as Bob Dylan. Add in the length of the takes compared to Wicked, which seems to cut every few seconds lest the audience gets too comfortable or invested, and A Complete Unknown seems both like a movie that deeply relies on its sound team and one that pushed that team to perform feats especially impressive to sound professionals.
Preference: Just because I prefer how Wicked captures the ridiculously powerful pipes of Erivo (and her ability to blend theatricality, film performance, and the song-to-dialogue transition), I’ve got to give it my seal of approval. If Dune was combined into one single movie, though, I’d be stumping for the Sardaukar chant, which has never once left my mind since seeing it.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Nominees: Alien: Romulus; Dune: Part Two; Wicked; Kingdom Of The Planet Of The Apes; Better Man
Prediction: This category is a real barrel of monkeys. But which to choose? The singing one? The warring ones? The flying ones? As impressive as these apes are, the second half of Dune is also its most epic and all-out half—from the knife fights to the massive military engagements to all the sandworms, it’ll be hard to imagine the Academy not awarding this impressively realized sci-fi vision.
Preference: I’m far more willing to appreciate exceptional motion-capture work than the Academy historically has been, but I’m still a big fan of how the Dune team conjures up all the vehicles, worms, weapons, and other fantastical details of Frank Herbert’s various worlds. And it’s not just the set pieces themselves, but how the film is shot to accommodate the VFX, allowing it to blend naturally into the overall aesthetic. But really, any movie nominated here deserves this win, aside from the one that used generative AI to make an ugly CG meat puppet out of a dead actor.
