The global box office has already been in dire straits due to the cumulative impact of the pandemic, strikes, and truncated theatrical windows as a result of the rise of streaming. While things have been looking up slightly in recent months—largely due to a string of Warner Bros. hits including A Minecraft Movie, Superman, and Sinners—a decrease in the number of titles heading to theaters could have grim consequences. “I’d say this is a red alert, and everyone in our industry should see it as such,” said one exec. “It’s a serious antitrust issue, and we all need to call it out as such if Paramount and Netflix are really serious about doing this.”
We’ve seen these fears of decreased output play out before. Disney’s 2019 acquisition of 20th Century Fox led to a major dropoff in production for that studio; while 20th Century Fox was regularly releasing 12-17 movies a year before the deal went through, it hasn’t produced more than five in a single year since. While Ellison previously intimated that he’d keep key creative teams intact and potentially even increase slates should a Paramount-WBD merger go through, theater owners are skeptical. “Disney promised that they wouldn’t cut back on the number of movies 20th Century was putting out, and then they did,” one exec said. “And yeah, we see that now, and there’s a lot of frustration, but no one said anything at the time.”
Even so, a Paramount acquisition could be preferable to Netflix’s bid, as the streamer is infamously reluctant to send their releases to theaters at all. “We’ll at least get another Minecraft movie on our screens under Paramount. They know they’d get the most out of the IP they’re buying through theaters,” a different executive opined. “Netflix? That’s probably all gone. DC, New Line horror, all of it. Netflix would be the worst-case scenario for me.”
U.S.-based trade organization Cinema United is reportedly speaking with theater chains and other key stakeholders to prepare a response, while the execs urge similar unions in other markets to do the same. “Trump isn’t going to be a factor with the European regulators,” one source said. “But a Warner merger is going to be a factor with every movie theater around the world.”
